- Dogecoin has higher ETF approval odds than expected: Analysts believe Dogecoin (DOGE) may have better chances than Solana (SOL) or XRP, as the SEC is likely to classify it as a commodity, easing regulatory hurdles.
- Litecoin leads due to regulatory clarity: Litecoin (LTC) is seen as the most likely ETF candidate because it is a Bitcoin fork, giving it a stronger commodity classification under regulatory guidelines.
- XRP faces challenges from ongoing lawsuit: The SEC’s legal battle with Ripple over whether XRP is a security or commodity continues to reduce the likelihood of an XRP ETF being approved soon.
Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas recently assessed the likelihood of SEC approval for various altcoin ETFs. While they see Litecoin (LTC) as the most probable to win approval, they made an unexpected call—Dogecoin (DOGE) might have better odds than Solana (SOL) or XRP. Their reasoning? The SEC may view Dogecoin as a commodity, which could ease regulatory hurdles.
Security vs. Commodity Debate Looms Over XRP ETFs
Since the departure of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, there has been a flood of new ETF applications. Analysts believe that resolving the security vs. commodity classification of assets like XRP will play a major role in determining ETF approvals. The SEC’s ongoing legal battle with Ripple over XRP’s classification continues to hurt the chances of an XRP ETF being approved anytime soon.
Conversely, Litecoin benefits from greater regulatory clarity, as it is likely seen as a commodity due to its status as a Bitcoin fork. This makes LTC ETFs a safer bet for approval. Analysts also note that Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force aims to classify more crypto assets as commodities, which could favor Dogecoin and Litecoin in the near future.
Why Dogecoin Could Get an Edge Over Solana and XRP
Seyffart and Balchunas placed Dogecoin higher on their ETF approval rankings than Solana, despite SOL’s perceived strong market position. They argue that Dogecoin’s likely commodity status simplifies the regulatory pathway under the CFTC’s oversight, giving it an edge. Meanwhile, Solana and XRP face stricter scrutiny due to ongoing classification uncertainties.
Seyffart added that filings for Dogecoin and XRP ETFs could be acknowledged soon, possibly within the week. This reflects growing momentum for crypto ETF applications, with even Grayscale recently filing for the industry’s first Cardano (ADA) ETF.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Signs for Altcoin ETFs
The crypto industry is eagerly awaiting the SEC’s response to the surge in altcoin ETF applications. While Litecoin and Dogecoin appear to have stronger chances due to their likely classification as commodities, XRP and Solana may face regulatory headwinds. Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic that the SEC will begin acknowledging more applications soon, marking a potentially bullish shift for crypto investors.
