- Fidelity Digital Assets says nearly 15 million BTC are now held by long-term investors, marking a new all-time high.
- The firm believes the data resembles previous market-cycle bottoms, although it says it is too early to confirm a reversal.
- Despite Bitcoin trading well below its 2025 peak, many long-term holders continue to hold their positions, signaling strong conviction.
Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s long-term holders are showing some of the strongest conviction ever recorded, even as the cryptocurrency remains well below its previous all-time high.
According to research analyst Zack Wainwright, the amount of Bitcoin that has remained untouched for at least 155 days has climbed to nearly 15 million BTC, reaching a new record on July 5, 2026.
The milestone comes during a prolonged market downturn and suggests that many investors continue to view Bitcoin as a long-term asset despite ongoing price weakness.
Long-Term Holders Continue to Accumulate
Fidelity considers long-term holders one of the clearest indicators of investor confidence because they tend to avoid selling during periods of market volatility.
Historically, the supply held by this group has increased throughout bear markets before declining as investors begin taking profits during bull markets.
According to Fidelity, nearly 40% of these long-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses, yet most have continued holding their Bitcoin rather than exiting their positions.
On-Chain Data Resembles Past Market Bottoms
Wainwright noted that several on-chain indicators are approaching levels that have historically coincided with previous Bitcoin market bottoms.
While Fidelity stopped short of declaring that the bear market has ended, the firm said current long-term holder behavior is consistent with conditions seen near past cycle lows.
Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, a significantly smaller decline than previous bear markets that saw corrections ranging from 70% to 90%.
According to Fidelity, that comparatively modest drawdown may reflect the market’s continued maturation.
Analysts Remain Cautious
Although Fidelity sees encouraging signs, the firm emphasized that no single metric can reliably predict when a market bottom has been reached.
Meanwhile, market analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin’s most likely bottoming period remains the fourth quarter, with his current framework suggesting prices could revisit the $44,000 area before a sustained recovery begins.
Both analysts agree that while investor conviction remains strong, confirmation of a new bull market has yet to emerge.
August Could Be the Next Major Test
Seasonal trends may soon provide another important challenge for Bitcoin.
According to historical data, August delivered negative returns during each of the previous three U.S. midterm election years, with declines ranging between 15% and 18%.
Whether Bitcoin follows that historical pattern or begins establishing a durable bottom will likely be closely watched by investors over the coming weeks as on-chain conviction continues to strengthen.
