- XRP briefly touched the $1.00 level before bouncing, leaving traders split over whether the market is breaking down or setting up for a major reset.
- Grayscale says regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act could trigger a broader repricing across digital assets, including XRP.
- The next major catalyst may depend on whether Congress moves before the August recess.
XRP briefly tapped the $1.00 mark on Thursday before recovering, and now the market is split right down the middle. Some traders see the move as a warning sign, maybe even the start of another painful leg lower. Others believe XRP is getting close to a major repricing event, especially if the CLARITY Act finally gives digital assets the regulatory clarity investors have waited years to see.
As usual in crypto, the truth is probably not sitting at either extreme. XRP is under pressure, no doubt. But it is also trading near a level that has historically attracted a lot of attention. And with Washington now playing a major role in the next phase of the market, the coming weeks could matter more than a normal technical bounce.
Grayscale Sees a Case for XRP Repricing
Grayscale’s head of research recently laid out a scenario that has quickly gained attention among XRP holders. If the CLARITY Act passes and gives the crypto market clearer rules, Grayscale believes several digital assets could be repriced, with XRP among the most obvious candidates.
The argument is pretty simple. Institutional interest has not disappeared, even with XRP trading far below its highs. Demand for Grayscale’s XRP product suggests larger investors are still watching the asset closely, but many may be waiting for a cleaner legal framework before moving more aggressively.
There is also the supply question. Grayscale’s executive suggested that more clarity around XRP’s long-term token supply outlook could help unlock additional value. If future token inflation is reduced, or even just better understood by the market, that could strengthen the case for higher prices over time.
XRP Is Still Holding a Critical Level
XRP has fallen sharply in recent weeks, sliding from around $1.70 to nearly $1.00. That kind of move is painful, but it also fits the historical shape of crypto bear-market corrections. The token is now down roughly 70% from its all-time high near $3.65, which is close to the type of drawdowns seen in previous major cycles before recoveries eventually formed.
The broader market is not helping either. Bitcoin has been struggling below $60,000, sentiment remains weak, and the Fear and Greed Index is sitting deep in fear territory. Total crypto market cap is also moving toward a major support area near $2 trillion.
In that kind of environment, XRP defending $1 matters. Not because $1 is magic, but because psychological levels often become decision points. If buyers continue stepping in there, it could support a relief rally. If that level fails cleanly, though, the next move could get messy fast.
The Cycle Argument Is Getting Louder
Some veteran analysts who called the October 2025 market top using four-year cycle timing are now pointing to the same model and saying a bottom may be forming. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have been followed by major drawdowns before the next cycle begins. The current decline, sitting around 51% from the Bitcoin peak, still falls within the range seen during past cycle lows.
XRP’s setup also resembles earlier capitulation phases. Retail buyers who entered near the top are now sitting on heavy losses, while long-term accumulators are watching for signs of exhaustion. That does not guarantee the bottom is in. It never does. But it does suggest the market may be moving deeper into the washout stage, where fear is usually at its highest.
Why the CLARITY Act Could Change the Setup
The CLARITY Act could become one of the most important regulatory events for crypto in the United States. If passed, it would create clearer lines between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset oversight. For XRP, that matters more than most, given its years-long legal battle with the SEC and the landmark ruling that XRP itself is not a security.
A formal legislative framework could remove one of the last big overhangs holding back institutional capital. Funds, firms, and larger investors that have been waiting for legal certainty may finally have a clearer path to participate.
Still, timing is everything. If Congress passes the bill before the August recess, XRP could see renewed attention quickly. If the process drags out, the market may stay cautious for longer. For now, XRP is caught between weak price action and a potentially major regulatory catalyst. That is exactly why the $1 level matters so much.
