- Analyst Cheeky Crypto assigns a 53% probability to an XRP breakout from a long-term descending broadening wedge.
- A confirmed move above $3.00 could open a path toward price targets ranging from $7 to $11 or higher.
- The bearish scenario remains in play, with a break below $1.11 potentially leading to a much deeper correction.
XRP traders are once again debating a familiar question: how high can the token go if the next major breakout arrives? This time, the discussion is centered around a technical pattern that has been developing for more than a year and a probability estimate that sits only slightly above a coin flip.
According to analyst Cheeky Crypto, XRP currently has a 53% chance of breaking higher from a descending broadening wedge that has been forming since the asset peaked near $3.40 in January 2025. If that pattern resolves to the upside, projected expansion targets range from approximately $7 to as high as $11. The catch, of course, is that the setup remains finely balanced, and the downside scenario is still very much alive.
A Rare Chart Pattern Is Taking Shape
The structure attracting attention is known as a descending broadening wedge. Unlike more common wedge formations that tighten over time, this pattern expands as price swings become increasingly volatile.
On XRP’s monthly chart, both highs and lows have stretched further apart over the last year. The recent 11.6% decline since mid-May has not invalidated the formation. Instead, it continues to fit within the broader structure. XRP established a series of lower lows at approximately $1.61, $1.37, and $1.10 between April 2025 and February 2026, helping define the lower boundary of the wedge.
According to Cheeky Crypto, these types of formations often end with a final period of capitulation followed by a sharp expansion move. Whether that expansion ultimately occurs remains the key question.
The Two Price Levels That Matter Most
For traders watching XRP, the entire setup can largely be reduced to two critical levels.
The first is $1.11. This area served as a major support zone during the February 2026 selloff, where buyers stepped in aggressively to prevent further losses. If XRP loses that level convincingly, the bearish scenario becomes much more realistic. The analyst suggests a decline toward roughly $0.32 could follow, representing a potential drawdown of more than 70%.
The second level is $3.00, which currently acts as the upper boundary of the wedge. A decisive breakout and monthly close above that region would dramatically strengthen the bullish case. That is the point where many traders would begin looking toward the projected expansion range between $7 and $11.
Until one of those levels breaks, the market remains trapped between two very different outcomes.
Why The Breakout Probability Matters
One reason the analysis has gained attention is the relatively balanced probability estimate. Cheeky Crypto assigns a 53% chance to the bullish breakout and a 43% chance to the bearish alternative.
That narrow gap is important because it highlights the uncertainty surrounding the current setup. This is not a situation where technical indicators overwhelmingly point in one direction. Instead, traders are dealing with a structure that could realistically resolve either way depending on broader market conditions and investor sentiment.
The analyst also noted that descending broadening wedges historically resolve upward slightly more often than downward after volatility expansion. However, that statistical edge remains relatively small, which helps explain why the forecast is generating so much debate.
Volatility May Come Before Direction
Another key takeaway from the analysis is that XRP may not move directly toward either outcome. Large chart patterns often involve periods of frustration, false signals, and emotional exhaustion before a definitive breakout occurs.
Cheeky Crypto warned that XRP could experience additional volatility and sideways trading before any larger directional move develops. That possibility aligns with the asset’s history. XRP has frequently tested investor patience through prolonged consolidation periods before producing explosive rallies or sharp declines.
For many traders, the next major move may be less about short-term price action and more about whether XRP can eventually reclaim $3.00 or lose $1.11.
The Market Is Waiting For Confirmation
The idea of XRP reaching $11 naturally attracts attention, especially among long-term holders who have waited years for another major breakout. Yet the current chart structure suggests patience may still be required.
The bullish case remains intact as long as support levels continue holding and the wedge structure survives. At the same time, the downside risk cannot be ignored. With breakout probabilities separated by only a few percentage points, the market has not yet made its decision.
For now, traders are watching the same two levels. Above $3.00, the path toward $7 and potentially $11 begins to open. Below $1.11, an entirely different conversation takes over. Until one of those levels gives way, XRP remains caught between two dramatically different futures.
