- Only 43.4% of XRP supply is in profit, the lowest level since July 2024
- XRP ETFs saw notable outflows in early March, signaling weaker institutional demand
- A potential short squeeze could trigger upside, but recovery still needs stronger spot buying
XRP is under real pressure right now, and the latest on-chain data makes that pretty hard to ignore. According to Glassnode, only 43.4% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently in profit, with price hovering around $1.33. That means more than half of all tokens are being held at a loss… which is a rough place for sentiment.
What makes this stand out even more is the timing. This is the lowest profitability level XRP has seen since July 2024. Back during the 2024–2025 cycle, the same metric stayed near 90% to 100% for a long stretch, so the drop has been steep, and honestly, kind of brutal.
The Downtrend Has Been Relentless Since the 2025 Peak
After the blow-off top in 2025, XRP started rolling over—and it never really recovered. The right side of the chart tells the story clearly: lower highs, weaker bounces, and a steady slide that pushed a huge chunk of supply underwater.
That kind of move changes behavior. When most holders are sitting on losses, markets tend to get more reactive. Some people panic and sell, others just freeze and wait. Either way, it usually means less confidence, thinner demand, and a market that feels… heavy.
ETF Flows Suggest Institutional Interest Has Cooled
Part of the weakness may be coming from institutions pulling back. U.S.-based XRP ETFs now hold around $917 million in total net assets, down from above the $1 billion mark just a few days earlier. It’s not a collapse, but it does signal fading appetite.
The sharpest outflows came between March 5 and March 12. March 6 saw about $16.62 million leave, and March 9 was even worse at $18.11 million in net outflows. That kind of capital flight tends to hit confidence fast, especially when price is already weak.
The Bleeding Has Slowed, But Recovery Is Still Unclear
There are a few signs that things may be stabilizing, at least a little. The final week of March was mostly flat in terms of ETF flows—lots of zero-flow days, with only small drawdowns like the $1.32 million outflow on April 1.
So maybe the worst of the selling is over… maybe. But stabilization doesn’t automatically mean recovery. It just means the pressure has eased for now, and the market is waiting to see what comes next.
A Short Squeeze Could Shift the Tone Quickly
One wildcard in all this is the derivatives market. There’s growing chatter about a possible short squeeze, especially with bearish positioning building while spot liquidity stays thin. If buyers step in and force shorts to unwind, XRP could move higher fast, even if just temporarily.
Still, that outcome needs real follow-through. Without stronger demand, any bounce could fade just as quickly as it starts. For now, the setup is fragile—oversold, pressured, and stuck between exhaustion and opportunity.
