- Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim $70,000 while on-chain activity shows signs of stagnation
- Alphractal and Santiment data suggest fewer active addresses and slower network growth, creating a bearish divergence
- Whale accumulation is rising sharply, with large holders adding over 200,000 BTC in recent weeks
Bitcoin has been hovering around the mid-$60,000 range after giving back a large chunk of its late-2025 rally. Even after multiple attempts, BTC still hasn’t been able to reclaim the psychologically important $70,000 mark, which continues to act like a ceiling. Price is holding up, but it’s not exactly inspiring confidence either, and traders can feel that hesitation.
At the same time, new on-chain data suggests Bitcoin’s network activity is losing energy. According to analytics shared by Alphractal, the chain is starting to look “quiet,” and not in a healthy way. The biggest concern is that BTC is still a massive asset in market cap terms, yet the actual usage and movement underneath is slowing down.
Bearish Divergence Builds as On-Chain Activity Stagnates
Alphractal reported that Bitcoin’s active supply has stopped growing, meaning fewer coins are moving across the network. In simple terms, people are sitting on their BTC and not doing much with it. The firm argued that this isn’t just a market structure issue, but a reflection of “global human behavior,” where weaker prices and uncertainty create hesitation and inaction.
They described the current phase as “social demotivation” on-chain. It’s basically emotional fatigue showing up in data: reduced engagement, fewer people taking action, and less conviction overall. It’s not dramatic in one day, but it can be dangerous when it builds slowly over weeks.
Santiment backed up the same idea with a sharper comparison to 2021. The platform reported 42% fewer unique BTC addresses making transactions and 47% fewer new addresses being created. None of this proves crypto is dead, or that we’re guaranteed a multi-year bear market, but it does show a clear divergence forming through 2025: market caps pushed higher while BTC’s on-chain utility trended lower.
Whale Accumulation Accelerates Even as Retail Activity Cools
Here’s where the story gets interesting. Even as network participation slows, whales appear to be leaning in. Bitcoin whale accumulation has reportedly increased by more than 200,000 BTC in recent weeks, showing that larger holders are still treating this pullback like an opportunity.
Some whale inflows to exchanges have increased too, which often hints at short-term selling pressure. But the bigger picture still shows whale holdings rising, which suggests accumulation is outpacing distribution.
CryptoQuant tracks whale-held supply using monthly averages, which helps smooth out the noise. That metric dropped sharply to nearly minus 7% on December 15, but has since reversed, with whale holdings rising 3.4% over the past month. Over that period, whales increased their BTC supply from roughly 2.9 million to more than 3.1 million coins.
Why This Divergence Matters for Bitcoin’s Next Move
CryptoQuant noted that a similar scale of whale accumulation last appeared during the April 2025 correction. Back then, whale buying helped absorb selling pressure and contributed to Bitcoin’s rally from $76,000 to $126,000. That historical comparison doesn’t guarantee the same outcome, but it shows whales have a habit of stepping in when price drops far enough to make risk-reward attractive.
With Bitcoin now sitting around 46% below its peak, the current zone may be triggering that same behavior again. On-chain activity is sluggish, yes, but the supply is still quietly shifting into bigger hands. And that’s often how markets reset before the next narrative forms.
Bitcoin Is Quiet, But Not Dead
Right now, Bitcoin looks stuck between two worlds. The on-chain data shows stagnation and fatigue, while whales are accumulating like they believe the next major move is being built, not sold. That mix creates an uncomfortable market where price chops sideways, participation fades, and yet the smartest money keeps stacking.
BTC reclaiming $70,000 would shift sentiment quickly. But until then, the chain’s slowing activity and this growing divergence will stay front and center.
