- Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its October peak and remains stuck below $70,000, fueling crypto winter fears.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says retail users are still buying dips, with BTC and ETH native unit balances rising.
- Commentator Mippo warns valuations are resetting as regulation and cash-flow focus replace pure speculation, potentially extending weakness 9–18 months.
Bitcoin has been struggling to find its footing again. Since hitting a record high last October, the price has dropped nearly 50%, and the fact that BTC is still stuck below $70,000 is starting to bring back an old fear: another crypto winter. Not the mild kind either, but the long, slow kind where everything bleeds and optimism disappears for months.
Still, there’s one detail that doesn’t fit the doom narrative. According to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, retail activity on Coinbase has remained surprisingly steady through the selloff, and in some cases, it’s actually leaned bullish.
Coinbase Data Shows Retail Is Still Buying the Dip
In a recent tweet, Armstrong said Coinbase platform data suggests retail users have continued buying into price weakness. Instead of dumping positions, smaller investors have increased their native unit holdings in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. That’s an important distinction, because it’s not just dollar value shifting with price. It’s the actual number of BTC and ETH held on the exchange rising.
Armstrong also added that most retail customers held balances in February that were equal to or higher than their December levels. In other words, retail participation hasn’t collapsed, even as price action has gotten uglier. If anything, the data implies a “diamond hands” mentality is still alive, at least among Coinbase’s user base.
This kind of behavior is a bullish counter-signal, because retail tends to be the first group to panic when markets turn. If they’re not panicking, it suggests either stronger conviction, or a more mature investor base, or maybe both.
Mippo Warns a Full Crypto Winter May Be Starting
Not everyone is buying the optimism though. Market commentator Mippo warned that the broader outlook still looks fragile, and he believes current conditions resemble the early stages of a “full-on crypto winter.” He suggested the downturn could rival the severity of the 2022 bear market, or even echo the long reset seen in 2019.
His reasoning is less about charts and more about valuation structure.
Mippo argued that the market is dealing with an “air gap,” created by previously unsustainable valuations that were inflated by speculative capital, not business fundamentals. In past cycles, crypto projects often couldn’t generate compliant revenue or real cash flows, partly due to regulatory uncertainty. So token prices were set by narrative momentum, scarcity, and how much capital was chasing whatever theme was hottest at the time.
That framework worked when speculation ruled everything. But according to Mippo, it’s now breaking down.
Regulation Is Changing the Valuation Game
Mippo believes the market is entering a new phase where regulatory pathways are becoming clearer, starting with stablecoins and eventually extending to a wider set of tokens. He sees this shift as positive long term, but painful in the short term, because it forces the market to reprice projects that were valued mostly on hype.
As compliant revenue becomes more realistic, investors are increasingly looking for cash flows and sustainable business models. That naturally pressures tokens that were priced too high under the old “pure speculation” system. Mippo says this helps explain a confusing trend many traders are noticing: on-chain activity and real usage can be growing, while token prices still decline.
Basically, the fundamentals can improve, but valuations can still reset.
AI Is Stealing the Spotlight, and Meme Speculation Is Wearing Thin
Mippo also took a shot at the broader crypto narrative environment, saying crypto is being “absolutely mogged by AI.” The idea is that capital and attention have shifted toward AI, while crypto has struggled to produce mainstream products during the meme coin frenzy.
He argued that meme speculation is now catching up with the industry, and that crypto failed to build enough genuinely useful applications during that period. Because of that, he expects the valuation reset could continue for another nine to eighteen months before conditions meaningfully improve.
That timeline isn’t a prediction, but it reflects the mood shift happening across the market. Less euphoria, more scrutiny.
The Market Is Caught Between Resilience and Reset
So right now, crypto is stuck in a weird place. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its high, and the market is flirting with another winter narrative. At the same time, retail investors on Coinbase appear to be holding steady and buying dips, which is not what you typically see when confidence is fully broken.
If Mippo is right, the market may still have months of repricing ahead, especially as regulation pushes crypto closer to traditional valuation logic. But if Armstrong’s data is also right, retail may be quietly building positions through the downturn, which is often how the next cycle starts.
Not with hype. With accumulation. Quietly, and kind of painfully.
