- Hyperliquid lost significant volume and revenue in H2 2025 as competition intensified across perp DEXs.
- Messari analysts believe Lighter’s growth was incentive-driven and may fade as farming rewards end.
- HYPE shows early signs of recovery, while LIT struggles post-launch, keeping the rivalry unresolved.
Competition among perpetual decentralized exchanges has turned brutal, and even Hyperliquid, the long-standing market leader, has felt the pressure. As newer platforms pushed aggressively for market share in the second half of 2025, Hyperliquid’s once-clear dominance started to look less certain.
Binance-backed Aster gained noticeable traction during this period, but many analysts pointed to Lighter as the more serious challenger. Features like privacy and early-user incentives helped Lighter pull volume away from Hyperliquid, at least temporarily. Still, not everyone is convinced that this threat will last.
Ahead of the Lighter (LIT) token launch and airdrop, Messari research analyst Sam played down the long-term impact. He argued that Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, could outperform LIT over the mid-term, adding that HYPE is likely to reprice as the “endgame perp DEX.” According to Sam, concerns around fee compression are overblown, at least for now.
In his view, Lighter’s surge was largely driven by farming incentives. As those incentives wind down, perp volume on Lighter is already “falling off a cliff.” Once the easy rewards dry up, Sam expects many of those traders to drift back toward Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid Revenue Took a Hit, but the Story Isn’t Over
There’s no denying Hyperliquid cooled off sharply in the back half of the year. As competition intensified and overall trading activity slowed in Q4 2025, perpetual volume dropped hard. From a peak near $396 billion, volume slid to roughly $165 billion, a decline of about 60%.
That slowdown rippled straight into revenues. Fees generated from trading, which help fund HYPE buybacks, shrank alongside volume. Average weekly revenue slipped from around $20 million in Q3 to closer to $7 million by late December. That’s a steep, roughly 65% drop, and it didn’t go unnoticed by the market.
With monthly token unlocks continuing and buybacks slowing, bearish pressure on HYPE built quickly. For a stretch, sellers had the upper hand. Still, Sam believes this phase may be transitional. If Lighter’s farming crowd rotates back, Hyperliquid’s volume and revenue could rebound faster than expected.
LIT Launch Puts Both Tokens Under the Microscope
Lighter officially rolled out the LIT token, confirming that 25% of its 1 billion total supply would be airdropped immediately to early users. The remaining tokenomics look familiar. Like HYPE, LIT features a one-year vesting period for the team and plans to use protocol revenue for buybacks, depending on market conditions.
At launch, LIT debuted around $3.30. Since then, price action has been rough. The token has slid to about $2.70, marking a 21% drop over the past week and a sharp 16% decline in just the last 24 hours. Early excitement faded quickly once real trading began.
HYPE, on the other hand, has shown relative resilience. The token climbed more than 2% over the past day and is now approaching a key short-term level. A clean move above the recent peak near $26.4 could flip the structure bullish. Beyond that, resistance near $27 looms as the next test.
For now, the perp DEX race feels far from settled. Hyperliquid has stumbled, but it hasn’t broken. And as incentives shift and traders chase real liquidity rather than short-term rewards, the balance of power may still swing back.
