- XRP supply on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2018.
- Strong support is forming around $1.78, a key level for any 2026 recovery.
- Continued accumulation could shift XRP into a more structural, institutional phase.
XRP is holding above a key demand zone that has repeatedly supported price action throughout 2025, trading near the $1.87 level as the year winds down. What makes this moment stand out isn’t just price stability, but what’s happening behind the scenes. Exchange balances are shrinking fast, and that combination has traders asking whether XRP is quietly setting the stage for a more sustained recovery in 2026.
Exchange Supply Drops to Levels Not Seen Since 2018
Onchain data from Glassnode shows a sharp decline in XRP held on exchanges over the past two months. Exchange balances have fallen by roughly 2.16 billion XRP, dropping from about 3.76 billion in early October to nearly 1.6 billion as of Tuesday. These are levels last seen in August 2018, a notable shift in market structure.
A falling exchange balance typically signals reduced selling intent, as holders move assets into cold storage or longer-term investment vehicles. Trader and analyst LeviRietveld pointed out that only around 1.5 billion XRP now remains on exchanges, calling the setup bullish as liquidity continues to tighten.
Record Outflows Suggest Accumulation
The decline in exchange balances coincided with a historic spike in exchange outflows. On October 19, XRP’s net position change across exchanges dropped by roughly 1.4 billion tokens, marking the largest outflow event on record. Moves of this size are often associated with accumulation by large holders rather than short-term speculation.
Some traders believe ETFs are playing a role. Pseudonymous analyst Skipper noted that ETF-related demand may be draining XRP from exchanges, tightening liquidity and slowly shifting XRP into a more institutional-oriented asset profile. As liquidity dries up, price discovery can change in subtle but meaningful ways.
$1.78 Emerges as the Line in the Sand
From a technical perspective, XRP’s recent pullback was absorbed by a broad demand zone between roughly $1.60 and $1.84. This zone has acted as a reliable floor multiple times throughout 2025. Holding above it has historically preceded sharp rebounds, making it one of the most important areas on the chart.
Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution reinforces that view. The data shows $1.78 as the strongest support level, where approximately 1.87 billion XRP last changed hands. Below that level, support thins out significantly, meaning a breakdown would severely weaken any bullish recovery narrative for 2026.
Breakout Scenarios and the 2026 Outlook
If XRP continues to defend this zone, analysts suggest the setup could evolve into a triple-bottom structure on the weekly timeframe. A confirmed breakout from the current downtrend channel would shift momentum and open the door toward higher targets, with some projections pointing toward the $3.79 area.
Still, caution remains. Several analysts expect XRP to remain range-bound into early 2026, arguing that a true trend reversal may require fresh catalysts later in the cycle. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, with tightening supply and strong technical support creating a setup that could quietly reshape its longer-term trajectory.
