- SUI absorbed a $78.9M token unlock without breaking structure, keeping price stable above key support.
- Tight compression near channel resistance suggests sellers are losing momentum.
- A breakout above $1.70 could open the path toward $2.10 and potentially higher if structure holds.
SUI has been moving quietly over the past few sessions, trading inside a tight range and refusing to pick a direction just yet. The price action feels controlled, almost deliberate, rather than driven by panic or aggressive repositioning. That calm showed up right as the market digested a scheduled $78.9 million token unlock, an event that usually shakes things up more than this.
Instead of breaking structure, SUI held steady. That raises a more interesting question now. Did the market simply absorb the new supply, strengthening the base, or is that same supply quietly capping upside for the moment?
Token Unlock Lands, Price Holds Its Ground
The $78.9 million unlock added a noticeable amount of fresh supply into circulation, but price never lost its footing. SUI stayed supported above the $1.40 area, suggesting the event had already been priced in well ahead of time. Typically, large unlocks show their impact fast, with sharp downside continuation and expanding volatility. That didn’t happen here.
Rather than selling aggressively, the market stayed balanced. Either the newly unlocked tokens met enough demand, or holders chose not to rush for the exit. In both cases, the result was the same. Structure remained intact, volatility stayed contained, and forced selling risk dropped off.
With SUI now trading around the mid-$1.50 region, the unlock acted more like a stress test than a shock. Price passed that test without blinking, which quietly says a lot about positioning.
Compression Near Resistance Starts to Matter
Zooming out, SUI appears to be transitioning out of an accumulation phase. For several weeks, price has been compressing inside a well-defined descending channel. Recently, something subtle changed. Daily candles have started to shrink, and the lower wicks are getting shorter as price presses closer to the channel’s upper boundary.
That tells a simple story. Sellers are losing follow-through. Price isn’t being pushed down with conviction anymore. At the same time, the broader structure hasn’t fully flipped bullish, so this remains a setup, not a confirmation.
The rebound that kicked off on Tuesday reinforced that shift. SUI bounced cleanly from the $1.34 support zone as the MACD crossed above its signal line. Momentum followed price, not the other way around, which often marks healthier moves. Since then, candles have continued to print higher lows, suggesting buyers are stepping in earlier and absorbing supply closer to resistance.
Breakout Levels Come Into Focus
What stands out now is where price is sitting. Instead of rejecting sharply from the channel ceiling, SUI has stabilized near it. That keeps breakout conditions alive. If price can push through the descending channel, the next natural target sits near the 50 EMA around $1.67.
Compressed structures like this tend to unwind fast once they resolve. A clean move above $1.70 would flip former resistance into support and shift the broader structure more decisively bullish. From there, the $2.10 supply zone becomes the next area to watch, especially if longer-term holders continue to outweigh short-term traders.
Short-term profit-taking could still slow things down, that’s normal. But as long as higher lows keep forming, the larger outlook stays constructive. Under that scenario, a reclaim of the $3 level before the end of Q1 2026 remains on the table, not guaranteed, but viable if structure holds.
Where the Line Is Drawn
In simple terms, SUI has absorbed its largest near-term supply event without damaging its price structure. That alone keeps the bias tilted toward continuation rather than exhaustion. The base formed during accumulation is still intact, and price action hasn’t shown signs of distribution yet.
This outlook only weakens if SUI loses the $1.34 level and fails to maintain higher lows. That would suggest absorption has turned into distribution. Until then, the market is leaning toward expansion, even if it takes a bit more time to show it clearly.
