- XRP fell 22% in August, closing the month near $2.85 after peaking at $3.66.
- $2.80 support is critical; breaking below could send XRP toward $1.73.
- MACD warns of a 25% drop, with $2.17 as the first downside target.
XRP hasn’t had the smoothest August. After peaking near $3.66, the token has slid more than 22% this month, and unless things flip quickly, August will close in the red. Traders now face a pressing question—does September bring more downside, or can bulls keep XRP afloat above the crucial $2.80 support level?
On-Chain Data Points to $2.80 Breakdown Risk
According to Glassnode’s cost basis heatmap, the heaviest supply cluster sits right between $2.81 and $2.82, where nearly 1.71 billion XRP were acquired. Right now, XRP is just a touch higher, hovering near $2.88.
This zone acts as a pressure point. If XRP dips under $2.80, it could trigger a wave of profit-taking as holders see their margins slip. In that case, the next logical support sits near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $1.73, a level that acted as a sturdy floor earlier this year.
MACD Signals a Bearish Cross
Technical signals aren’t giving much comfort either. On the weekly chart, XRP’s MACD indicator is lining up for a bearish crossover, where the faster-moving blue line cuts under the slower orange line. Historically, this move signals momentum loss—and often precedes sizable corrections.
We’ve seen it before. Bearish crosses in May 2021, September 2021, and March 2025 each triggered 50%–60% declines, sending XRP back to test its 50-week EMA. If history repeats, XRP could slide toward $2.17, which would mark a roughly 25% pullback from current levels.
Bigger Bear Market Risk if $1.73 Breaks
If XRP fails to hold the 50-week EMA at $2.17 and the $1.73 Fib line, the setup begins to resemble a deeper bear market. In that scenario, price could tumble toward the 200-week EMA near $1.19.
Interestingly, that’s close to the average acquisition cost for current holders, according to Glassnode. While over 90% of XRP holders are still in profit, such a drop could tempt many into taking chips off the table.
Conclusion
August’s rough finish has XRP traders nervous, and for good reason. On-chain clusters around $2.80 and bearish MACD signals suggest September could bring another leg down. Still, the bulls aren’t out of the fight just yet—XRP has used the 50-week EMA as support since mid-2024, often springboarding higher after retests.
The big question now: can XRP hold the line above $2.80, or will September mark the start of a deeper retracement toward $2.17–$1.73?
