- Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have reached a new high of 5/6 with bookmaker Betfair, his best odds since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee
- Recent polls show Trump gaining ground in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, overtaking Harris’s lead
- Betting market analysis indicates Trump’s chances of victory have increased from 47% to 51% in the last week as punters heavily back the former president
Donald Trump‘s odds of winning the November presidential election are the best they have been since Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party nomination, according to betting exchange Betfair. The Republican candidate has gained ground in key swing states in recent weeks.
Trump Gaining Ground in Polls
A recent survey by Quinnipiac University put Trump ahead of Harris by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Wisconsin. A study by polling website 338Canada gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning in November, up from 47 percent in its previous analysis on October 8. Trump’s odds of victory with Betfair are the shortest they have been since August 22 when Harris formally accepted the Democratic nomination.
Betfair Market Fluctuations
The Betfair Exchange market has flipped between Harris and Trump as the favorite eight times since August. But punters now seem to have settled on the former president. Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said “In the last week, his [Trump’s] odds have shortened from evens to 4/5 which now gives him a 56 percent chance. While Kamala Harris is out to 5/4 having been the odds-on favorite after the presidential debate last month.”
Trump’s Strongest Odds Yet
Rosbottom continued: “In fact looking back at Trump’s two previous presidential campaigns, his odds now are the shortest they have ever been at this point, with three weeks to go until polling day. In 2016 when he won the election he was as big as 5/1 at this point in that campaign.”
Tight Race Nationally
According to FiveThirtyEight‘s latest analysis, Harris currently has a 2.5 point lead over Trump nationally – 48.6% to 46.1%. However, due to the Electoral College system, Harris could win the popular vote but still lose the election overall.
Conclusion
The presidential election remains a tight race with only three weeks left until voting day. Trump’s odds have steadily improved, and he now has his strongest chances yet of winning according to bookmakers. But it remains to be seen whether polling gains will translate into victory for the Republican in November.
