- XRP briefly dropped to its lowest price of the year before buyers stepped in to defend the crucial $1 support level.
- On-chain data shows investors are realizing losses at levels not seen since the 2022 bear market, signaling growing capitulation.
- Despite the recent weakness, several analysts believe XRP’s long-term bullish structure remains intact if key support continues to hold.
XRP has endured another rough week, slipping back toward the psychological $1 mark after a fresh wave of selling dragged the token to its lowest level of the year. At one point, XRP briefly touched $1.0079 before buyers managed to push it back toward the $1.05-$1.06 range.
Even with that rebound, the token remains down roughly 8% over the past seven days.
The decline has also taken a toll on investor sentiment. On-chain data now shows XRP holders are realizing losses at levels last seen during the brutal 2022 crypto bear market. While that often points to growing capitulation, analysts say the market’s next move will largely depend on whether XRP can continue defending the support zone between $0.93 and $1.00.
XRP Fights to Hold the $1 Support Zone
The latest selloff nearly forced XRP below one of its most important psychological levels.
Buyers reacted quickly around $1.0079, preventing a deeper breakdown and helping the token recover modestly. For now, that defense keeps the broader recovery scenario alive, although confirmation is still missing.
The current support area stretches from roughly $0.93 to $1.00. This zone carries extra significance because it aligns with previous breakout levels, a long-term ascending trend line, and a key Fibonacci extension that many technical traders monitor.
If XRP closes decisively below $0.93, the picture could change rather quickly.
Such a move would weaken the current bottoming structure and potentially expose the next support area near $0.80. It would also push XRP below the long-term structure that has supported its broader uptrend since 2020.
On the upside, the first challenge sits around $1.15. Beyond that, bulls need to reclaim $1.40 before setting their sights on the stronger resistance zone between $1.70 and $1.90.
In other words, the bounce from $1 is encouraging… but it doesn’t confirm that the correction is over.
On-Chain Data Signals Heavy Capitulation
Blockchain analytics platform Glassnode revealed that XRP’s 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen to approximately 0.33, matching levels last seen during the 2022 bear market.
This metric compares the value of coins being sold at a profit versus those being sold at a loss.
A reading above one means investors are realizing more gains than losses. A reading below one suggests the opposite, and right now, XRP is sitting well below that threshold.
The current reading indicates that a large percentage of holders are exiting positions at a loss as the token trades near $1. Selling under pressure like this often reflects fear rather than confidence.
The ratio first slipped below one back in April 2026 when XRP was trading between $1.30 and $1.40. It later dropped to 0.38 in early June before falling again to its current level as prices continued sliding.
Still, capitulation doesn’t automatically mark a market bottom.
During the 2022 downturn, the same indicator eventually fell below 0.20 before XRP continued dropping toward $0.31. That shows extreme readings can persist for longer than many traders expect.
Elliott Wave Analysis Targets $5.85
Crypto analyst Dark Defender believes XRP may now be approaching the end of its wave-four correction.
According to his weekly chart, the correction appears to be completing near the 100% Fibonacci level around $0.9327. That’s almost perfectly aligned with the support zone buyers are currently defending.
The weekly Relative Strength Index has also dropped close to 29, placing XRP firmly inside oversold territory, a level that has coincided with previous market bottoms.
If the Elliott Wave count proves accurate, XRP could begin a fifth-wave advance after establishing a stronger base.
Dark Defender’s first upside target sits near $5.86. Beyond that, he projects a second extension toward roughly $8.78. A much more aggressive long-term scenario even points to around $18.23, although that projection would require a full multi-year expansion and remains highly speculative at this stage.
For now, maintaining support above $0.93 remains the most important requirement. Losing that level would significantly weaken the current bullish wave outlook.
Rising Trend Line Continues to Support Bulls
Another analyst, Mikybull Crypto, also believes XRP could be experiencing a classic capitulation event rather than the beginning of a larger collapse.
His monthly chart shows XRP testing a long-term ascending trend line that stretches back to the market bottom in 2020. At the same time, the token is sitting near a major Fibonacci retracement level while remaining below the Ichimoku Cloud.
That combination suggests volatility may continue in the near term, but the broader recovery structure has not yet been broken.
Mikybull’s longer-term projection targets the $5 to $8 range if XRP successfully holds the rising trend line. Interestingly, those price targets closely align with Dark Defender’s Elliott Wave projections.
Before any of those larger moves become realistic, however, XRP still has several hurdles to clear.
The token must first continue defending the $0.93-$1.00 support zone, recover above $1.40, and eventually break through the heavy resistance between $1.80 and $1.90.
Only after reclaiming those levels would traders likely shift their attention back toward the previous cycle high near $3.60. A breakout beyond that could open the door to the $5-$8 region.
If support fails instead, XRP may revisit $0.80 before another meaningful recovery attempt begins.
