- Polymarket predicts a 55% chance of Trump establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within his first 100 days.
- Confidence in Trump signing a crypto executive order on day one has dropped from 50% to 37%.
- Bitcoin is projected to have a 40% chance of reaching $120,000 by January’s end, with other major altcoins showing mixed probabilities.
Ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, Polymarket’s prediction platform has been buzzing with speculation about cryptocurrency-related executive orders. One standout prediction shows the probability of Trump establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) within his first 100 days climbing from 44% to 55% in the past 24 hours.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Gains Momentum
The idea behind the SBR is simple but significant: the U.S. government would acquire
as a strategic asset, similar to its use of gold reserves. With Bitcoin recently crossing $109,000, Bitwise’s Head of Research Europe, André Dragosch, believes the potential SBR is not fully reflected in current market prices. He predicts a price surge similar to the momentum seen during the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, where sustained net inflows kept driving the market upward.
Crypto Orders in Flux
Interestingly, while optimism surrounds the SBR, Polymarket data shows a decline in confidence regarding Trump signing a cryptocurrency-related executive order on his first day in office, dropping from 50% to 37% in just 24 hours. Analysts like Wincent’s Paul Howard suggest a “wait-and-see” period as Trump’s administration takes shape, with some viewing his stance on Ross Ulbricht’s clemency as a potential signal of his sincerity toward crypto.
Broader Crypto Market Predictions
Polymarket predictions also paint a vibrant, albeit uncertain, picture for crypto prices. Bitcoin is given a 40% chance of reaching $120,000 by the end of January, while Solana has a 46% probability of exceeding $300. Ethereum and XRP are in the mix too, with chances of hitting $4,000 and $3.20 sitting at 22% and 56%, respectively.
As Trump prepares to sign over 100 executive orders on day one—spanning topics from artificial intelligence to government efficiency (yes, including the Department of Government Efficiency or “DOGE”)—the world watches closely. The crypto market, especially, awaits a clearer stance, which could ripple globally if the administration gives crypto a solid green light.
