- Ethereum’s price has fallen below $3,216, with selling pressure from whales and long-term holders intensifying.
- Larger holders (10K–100K ETH) sold 190K ETH in 24 hours, outpacing the 80K ETH accumulated by smaller holders (1K–10K ETH).
- ETH’s weekly chart shows potential for an inverse H&S pattern, but $2,817 support is critical to avoid further declines toward $2,110.
Ethereum (ETH) continued its downward spiral on Thursday, weighed down by selling activity from both long-term holders (LTHs) and large whales. If momentum indicators dip below their neutral levels and ETH fails to reclaim the $3,216 support, bearish pressure could snowball into deeper losses.
Dormant Circulation Rises: Signs of Distribution
As the crypto market marked its third consecutive day of decline, Ethereum’s long-term holders began showing cracks in their resolve. The 2-year and 3-year Dormant Circulation metrics—tracking previously idle coins now on the move—saw slight upticks, signaling an increase in distribution.
Dormant circulation works like this: when the metric rises, it means holders who have stayed put are starting to sell. If this selling continues, especially among long-term holders alongside short-term traders, ETH could face steep downward momentum.
That said, Ethereum’s LTHs still outnumber Bitcoin’s, with 74% of ETH supply held long-term compared to Bitcoin’s 60%. This gap stems from Bitcoin’s ability to hit fresh all-time highs, whereas ETH is still wrestling below the $4,000 mark.
Diverging Supply Trends: Who’s Buying and Who’s Selling?
Ethereum’s supply distribution has been all over the place recently. Holders with 10K–100K ETH were initially accumulating during the downturn but flipped to selling in the last 24 hours, dumping over 190K ETH. Meanwhile, smaller holders with 1K–10K ETH started accumulating again, scooping up 80K ETH during the same timeframe.
But here’s the kicker: the larger cohort’s selling outweighs the smaller group’s buying. This imbalance makes a near-term recovery for ETH unlikely unless market dynamics change drastically.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Ethereum-focused ETFs recorded $159.4 million in net outflows, highlighting a lack of investor confidence.
Price Forecast: Short-Term Downside, Long-Term Hope
ETH is down 3%, with $84.40 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. Of that, $40.07 million came from longs, while shorts accounted for $44.33 million. On the 8-hour chart, ETH has fallen below the $3,216 level, bringing its rounding top pattern closer to completion, which could see support near $3,110 if the decline persists.
Despite the bearish short-term outlook, Ethereum’s weekly chart presents a glimmer of optimism. ETH appears to be forming the right shoulder of an inverse Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) pattern. For this pattern to hold, ETH must respect the $2,817 support and aim for the $4,093 resistance. A breakout above this resistance could validate the pattern, propelling ETH toward its all-time high resistance of $4,868.
However, the stakes are high. A drop below $2,817 could invalidate the pattern and send ETH tumbling toward $2,110, with the 50-day SMA potentially acting as a safety net.
Momentum Indicators: A Bearish Tilt
Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are sitting at critical levels on the weekly chart. Both indicators have crossed below their moving averages, hovering near neutral territory. Should they sustain moves below these levels, bearish momentum could strengthen, leading to amplified losses.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum remains at a crossroads. While bearish pressure dominates in the short term, long-term potential hinges on key support and resistance levels. Traders and investors should closely monitor $3,216, $2,817, and $4,093, as these levels could shape Ethereum’s trajectory in the weeks ahead. For now, caution rules the day, but the possibility of recovery is still in the cards if bullish momentum returns.
