- Solana’s SOL/BTC pair is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish breakout if the neckline at 0.00162 BTC is flipped decisively.
- The technical setup points to a possible 26% rally against Bitcoin, aiming for the 0.00216 BTC target, though caution remains as the price is still trapped under key resistance and the Ichimoku cloud.
- Late May is shaping up as the critical timeframe, with traders watching whether SOL can break resistance or face another rejection and retest around 0.00151 BTC.
Daily price action in the SOL/BTC pair is starting to tell a very different story compared to the heavy vibes from earlier this year. Veteran trader Josh Olszewicz dropped a fresh chart on Sunday that’s grabbing attention — and honestly, it’s looking pretty interesting.
Olszewicz’s one-day chart shows a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders (iHS) pattern forming since early March. Now, the price is creeping right up to the neckline at around 0.00162 BTC. At the time of his snapshot, Solana was trading at 0.001588 BTC — and with Bitcoin hovering around $94,765, that puts SOL at roughly $150 per coin.
Anatomy of the Setup
The chart itself is hard to argue with. You’ve got a March 19 low down at 0.00127 BTC ($120), which forms the “head,” and it’s flanked by swing lows on either side — March 11 formed the left shoulder, and the right shoulder is in the works now. The neckline? It’s neatly lined up with the old December support zone that broke down back in February, flipping from solid support into stubborn resistance.
Measured from the head to the neckline, the amplitude clocks in at about 0.00033 BTC. If this thing breaks cleanly? The technical target sits somewhere near 0.00195 BTC — lining up almost perfectly with the lower edge of the Kumo cloud (Ichimoku’s far boundary).
Solana Bulls Are Watching Closely
The chart’s overlaid with a wide-view Ichimoku setup (20/60/120/30 settings for those curious). As of the last close, the Tenkan-sen was at 0.00150 BTC, the Kijun-sen sat right on the neckline at 0.00162 BTC, while Senkou Span A was around 0.001742 BTC and Span B much higher at 0.002159 BTC.
The cloud itself is still thick, red, and overhead — clearly bearish for now. But here’s the kicker: the cloud’s span differential is starting to compress. That’s often an early hint that downward momentum might be running out of gas. If price pushes into the cloud properly, it would trigger the classic Ichimoku edge-to-edge setup, aiming for a move toward Span B at 0.00216 BTC (around $205).
A Mirror Image From the Past?
Here’s the spooky part — just two months ago, SOL/BTC carved out the exact opposite pattern: a head-and-shoulders top. After breaking down in early February, it plunged hard into the current iHS pattern by March. This kind of mirrored behavior gives extra credibility to what’s happening now, showing that SOL/BTC has been respecting classical chart formations really well lately.
Olszewicz summed it up simply:
“1D SOL/BTC – iHS + E2E at some point but not soon, probably late May.”
Translation? It’s looking bullish… but it’s not quite ready yet. Price is still stuck beneath both the neckline and the Kijun-sen. Plus, the Kumo cloud doesn’t thin out significantly until the final week of May. A premature breakout attempt could get smacked down into one more shoulder retest around 0.00151 BTC ($143).
Adding to the caution, the Chikou Span (lagging line) is still below both price and cloud. That means real trend confirmation is still pending. Whether you’re an Ichimoku purist or just a pattern-watcher, 0.00162 BTC is the line Solana bulls absolutely have to flip to turn things around.
The Road Ahead
If the breakout happens and the edge-to-edge play unfolds cleanly, SOL could rally about 26% against Bitcoin — climbing back to levels it hasn’t seen since early February. But if the neckline rejects again? Well, there’s not much support until you hit the twin shoulders around 0.00145–0.00148 BTC. A drop through that shelf would trash the bullish thesis and reopen downside risk toward March’s lows.
For now, the market’s coiling under resistance, quietly waiting. Whether Olszewicz’s “late-May” timing turns out right will probably depend on Bitcoin’s own moves and the broader risk environment. But one thing’s pretty clear: after a rough winter, Solana bulls finally have a pattern worth fighting for.
