- Ripple’s lawsuit remains unresolved, with experts outlining five possible outcomes, including reduced penalties or an SEC appeal withdrawal.
- Legal analysts speculate a settlement could be near, but the injunction on XRP sales remains a major hurdle.
- XRP holders and the crypto market await clarity, as the case remains one of the most significant legal battles in the industry.
Despite ongoing speculation, the XRP lawsuit remains unresolved, leaving the community divided on whether an early settlement is realistic. Meanwhile, legal experts have outlined five possible outcomes, adding more fuel to the debate.
Breaking Down the Potential Outcomes
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently dropped multiple crypto lawsuits, but Ripple’s case remains in limbo. Legal analysts argue that a quick resolution is unlikely. According to All Things XRP, a prominent advocacy platform, there are five key scenarios for how this could play out:
- SEC Withdraws Its Appeal (35%) – A policy shift under new leadership could lead the SEC to drop the appeal, but the $125 million fine and institutional XRP sales injunction would remain.
- Reduced Penalty (30%) – Ripple might negotiate a lower fine, possibly cutting it to $75 million, though removing the injunction would require court approval.
- Court Overturns the Ruling (20%) – The Second Circuit could uphold the SEC’s appeal, classifying programmatic XRP sales as securities and potentially imposing a $500 million fine.
- Fine Upheld, Injunction Dropped (25%) – Ripple could push for a ruling that upholds the fine but lifts the injunction, allowing institutional XRP sales to resume.
- SEC Drops the Case (15%) – The least likely scenario, where the SEC abandons the lawsuit, erasing penalties and dissolving the injunction—but requiring court approval.
Will the SEC Back Off?
There’s increasing speculation that the SEC might soften its stance, especially with the possibility of a new SEC Chair. Legal experts believe that if Paul Atkins takes over, he may push for a settlement that involves reducing penalties and removing some restrictions on XRP.
However, prominent legal voices like Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan argue that the injunction remains a major legal hurdle, making a quick resolution difficult.
When Will This Finally End?
Journalist Eleanor Terrett recently suggested that a Ripple-SEC settlement could be imminent, with Ripple actively negotiating to drop the penalties. Meanwhile, Hogan believes a March resolution is possible, though the injunction issue may take longer to resolve.
For now, XRP holders and the broader crypto market are left waiting, as the case remains one of the most pivotal legal battles in the industry.
