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BlockNews
Home BREAKING NEWS

Prediction Markets Surge 565% in Q3 as US Election Bets Drive Growth

Matoy by Matoy
October 14, 2024
in BREAKING NEWS, POLITICS
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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  • Prediction market volume surged 565% in Q3, fueled by increased US presidential election betting activity.
  • Polymarket holds a 99% market share, with $1.7 billion staked on the 2024 election.
  • Betting trends show former President Trump leading Vice President Harris on Polymarket by eight points.

The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant surge in prediction market activity, with betting volume reaching $3.1 billion. This marks a sharp increase from the $463.3 million recorded in the second quarter, largely driven by growing bets on the upcoming US presidential election. A report released on October 14 by CoinGecko attributes this spike to heightened interest as the election approaches.

Polymarket Dominates the Market

Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, held a dominant position in this space, accounting for more than 99% of the total market share. The report from CoinGecko notes that 46% of Polymarket’s volume so far this year stems from bets placed on the 2024 US presidential election, amounting to $1.7 billion. During the third quarter, Polymarket’s betting volume rose by 713%, while transaction activity saw an even larger jump of 848%.

The platform’s total value locked (TVL) stands at over $172 million, based on data from DefiLlama. This reflects the growing interest in decentralized platforms for wagering on real-world events, particularly as users bet on the outcome of high-profile elections.

Betting Trends Shift Toward Trump

Data from Polymarket shows that former President Donald Trump has gained an eight-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. By mid-October, 53.8% of Polymarket participants had placed their bets on Trump securing the presidency, compared to 45.3% backing Harris.

The shift in odds occurred on October 4, representing a reversal from earlier trends. By October 12, Trump’s lead had grown to over 10 points, signaling a significant change in the betting landscape as the election draws closer.

Disclaimer: BlockNews provides independent reporting on crypto, blockchain, and digital finance. All content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should do their own research before making investment decisions. Some articles may use AI tools to assist in drafting, but every piece is reviewed and edited by our editorial team of experienced crypto writers and analysts before publication.
Tags: US election
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Matoy

Matoy

If Matoy is not busy looking at the latest Web3 news, he's always in the kitchen cooking delicious meals for his family. He's also a competitive fighting game player and a car enthusiast

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