• Biden’s odds of dropping out of the 2024 presidential race surged to almost 80% on the prediction market Polymarket after a New York Times report
• The odds were only 55% earlier in the day before the report
• The report detailed interviews with sources close to Biden expressing concerns about his age and stamina for a re-election campaign
Former Vice President Joe Biden‘s odds of dropping out of the 2024 presidential race have spiked to almost 80% on Polymarket after a New York Times report detailing unease within the Democratic party about his potential re-election bid.
Biden’s Odds on Polymarket
Earlier in the day, Biden’s odds of bowing out of the race were only 55% on the predictions market Polymarket. However, after the Times story was published, his odds surged to almost 80%, indicating increased expectations that he will not ultimately pursue re-election.
Polymarket is a predictions market that allows traders to buy and sell shares on the likelihood of future events. The trading price represents the market-aggregated view on the probability of an outcome occurring.
Details of New York Times Report
The New York Times report cited interviews with 50 Democratic officials, including advisers, strategists, and donors. Many expressed reservations about Biden running again in 2024 due to his age, low approval ratings, and questions over his electoral viability.
The Times reported that while Biden intends to run again, many Democrats are hoping he concludes it would be better not to pursue re-election. Some are even willing to tell him this directly, or work behind the scenes to nudge him in that direction.
The story also noted concern among Democrats about Biden’s standing in Iowa, traditionally an important early state in the nomination process. His allies concede his prospects there do not look strong at the moment.
Implications
The spike in Biden’s dropout odds on Polymarket shows how predictions markets can respond swiftly to new information that may impact an outcome’s probability. While far from definitive, the odds movement indicates increased doubts about Biden’s viability after the Times story.
If Biden were not to run again, it would set off a wide open race for the 2024 Democratic nomination. Potential alternatives mentioned in the Times story included Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Biden has consistently said he plans to run again. But the Polymarket odds shift shows many are taking the Times report as a sign his re-election bid may not be a sure thing. Prediction markets like Polymarket will continue to provide real-time insight into the prevailing wisdom on whether Biden will ultimately carry through with another campaign.
