- Hedera’s recovery remains capped as HBAR struggles to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
- Bearish sentiment persists, with capital outflows and derivatives positioning favoring downside risk.
- A broader market shift would be needed for HBAR to flip resistance into support and target higher levels.
Hedera has tried to claw its way higher over the past few sessions, but the recovery hasn’t gained much traction. HBAR remains pinned below a key technical ceiling, with price unable to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. That barrier continues to cap upside momentum, even as the network looks ahead to structural changes planned for 2026.
For investors, the question isn’t whether Hedera is evolving at the protocol level. It’s whether those changes can actually translate into stronger price performance for HBAR, especially in a market that remains selective and cautious.
Hedera Prepares a Major Fee Adjustment for 2026
Back in July, Hedera confirmed that it will raise its ConsensusSubmitMessage transaction fee starting January 2026. The increase is sizable in percentage terms, roughly 800%, moving the fee from $0.0001 to $0.0008 per transaction.
These transactions are used to submit data to the Hedera network for trusted timestamping and ordering, a feature often leveraged by enterprise and infrastructure-focused applications. Despite the eye-catching percentage jump, the actual dollar cost remains extremely low.
As a result, the change is unlikely to materially affect user behavior or application demand. Most debate around the fee hike has centered on optics rather than impact. In practice, the adjustment appears designed to better align pricing with enterprise usage, without meaningfully altering the cost structure for everyday users or developers.
Bearish Positioning Continues to Dominate HBAR
Market sentiment around HBAR remains tilted to the downside. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator continues to sit well below the zero line, signaling persistent capital outflows. In simple terms, money has been leaving HBAR more often than it’s been coming in.
This reflects a broader lack of conviction across the altcoin market. Without strong macro tailwinds, investors appear reluctant to rotate aggressively into names like Hedera. Unless sentiment improves across the sector, this cautious stance could easily carry into 2026.
Derivatives data reinforces the same message. The liquidation map shows a clear imbalance in positioning. Short exposure currently sits near $8.2 million, while long exposure lags behind at roughly $4.5 million. Traders are leaning bearish, and that skew increases the risk of downside volatility, especially during thin liquidity or negative headlines.
HBAR Must Reclaim This Level to Change the Narrative
At the time of writing, HBAR trades near $0.112, holding just above immediate support around $0.109. That level has so far prevented deeper losses, but it hasn’t inspired much confidence either.
The real hurdle sits slightly higher. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $0.115 continues to act as firm resistance. Until price can flip that zone into support, any recovery attempt is likely to remain shallow.
Given the current mix of technical weakness and bearish positioning, consolidation above $0.109 looks more realistic than a clean breakout. Demand remains muted, and speculative interest is limited.
That said, conditions can change quickly. A broader shift toward risk-on sentiment across crypto could give HBAR a lift. If buyers manage to reclaim and hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the next upside target around $0.120 would come into focus. Until then, Hedera’s price action reflects patience, not momentum.
