- Understanding the Market: Recognize the current bull market and its potential risks, including the possibility of a future crash.
- Leveraging Key Events: Capitalize on the current market momentum driven by factors like Bitcoin ETF launches, pro-crypto political shifts, and institutional investment.
- Developing an Exit Strategy: Set clear price targets, implement a staged selling approach, maintain cash reserves, and exercise discipline to secure profits and mitigate risks.
Ellio Trades, one of the loudest voices in the crypto space, has put together a playbook for making the most out of this bull market. In his latest video, he outlines his strategy, from how he envisions the market unfolding to tips on preparing and planning your exit to secure profits. So, let us dive into the key insights.
Understanding the Situation
Ellio emphasizes that we are on the verge of the biggest bull run in crypto history. However, he also highlights a crucial point, “while this bull run could be historic, we must remember what happened after the dotcom bubble”. This is to highlight that after the massive growth came a brutal market crash that wiped out many investors.
As such, Ellio urges everyone to recognize the current situation—crypto is about to boom, but a collapse could follow. The key, he says, is to be aware of the risks and plan ahead. Essentially, enjoy the gains, but be ready for the inevitable downturn when the bubble bursts.
What’s the Big Deal Right Now?
Ellio highlights that right now, we are seeing a level of FOMO in crypto like never before, and there are several key events driving this massive surge:
- Bitcoin ETF Surge – Bitcoin’s BlackRock ETF saw $1 billion in trading volume in just the first 30 minutes of trading, signaling huge institutional interest.
- Pro-Crypto Political Shifts – The election of pro-crypto lawmakers, including Donald Trump, has created a more crypto-friendly environment in U.S. politics.
- U.S. Bitcoin Reserve – Senator Lummis proposed a plan for the U.S. government to buy 2,000 BTC per year, totaling 1 million BTC over five years.
- Global FOMO – As other countries jump in to accumulate Bitcoin, the race to buy before prices rise even more is heating up, creating massive global FOMO.
- Institutional FOMO – Big players like MicroStrategy and Coinbase are fueling a rush of institutional investment, adding even more momentum to the market.
Overall, the combination of these events signal a historic moment in crypto, with institutional and government support pushing the market to new heights.
We are on the Verge of a Supercycle
Ellio points out that we are currently in a unique phase of the crypto cycle. The global liquidity chart shows a clear uptick starting at the end of 2022 and into 2023, which lines up with Bitcoin’s price bottom. This shift suggests that the market has already begun its recovery and upward movement.
Moreover, based on this chart, this cycle is predicted to peak around mid-2026. Ellio points out that while there is no certainty in the crypto market, if the market follows this pattern, it could be the longest cycle in crypto history—one that some might even call a “supercycle.”
Have an Exit Strategy
Ellio emphasizes that we are not even in the “pregame” yet—there’s a massive shift coming once Bitcoin takes a breather. When that happens, altcoins will start to make significant gains, potentially creating “generational wealth candles” as they catch up to Bitcoin. This moment will be intoxicating for many, and without a solid exit strategy, many will get caught up in the excitement and ride the wave all the way down.
So, to prepare:
- Set Price Targets – Decide in advance at which price levels you will sell portions of your holdings to lock in profits gradually as prices rise.
- Sell in Stages – Instead of selling all at once, sell small amounts at each target to take advantage of continued upward momentum while still securing gains.
- Hold Cash Reserves – Keep some cash on the side to buy back if prices dip, allowing you to benefit from any future lows.
- Stay Disciplined – Stick to your plan and avoid getting swept up in market hype, keeping emotions in check to avoid costly mistakes.
Key Phases to Watch this Cycle
Ellio envisions an intense, parabolic phase coming soon for crypto. Here is how he sees things playing out:
- Big Run-Up to Early 2025 – Ellio expects a solid rally toward $100K for Bitcoin by early 2025, followed by a cool-off period for consolidation and support building.
- Summertime Slowdown – Typically, crypto activity dips over the summer as mainstream investors take a break, and Ellio thinks May to October 2025 will follow this trend with lower trading volumes and stagnation.
- Late-Year Rally Possibility – The second half of 2025 could bring another rally that potentially pushes Bitcoin to new highs, though Ellio warns this pattern isn’t guaranteed, and the market may behave differently.
- Take Profits in Early 2025 – Ellio recommends taking profits in the first half of 2025, especially if major price targets are hit, as securing gains early can prepare for any outcome amidst late 2025’s uncertain rally possibilities.
How to Gues-stimate the Top?
Ellio emphasizes that predicting the cycle top is almost impossible, but key indicators can signal when the market is shifting. This includes:
- Bitcoin Dominance – A steady increase in Bitcoin dominance signals Bitcoin is gaining strength, but a sharp drop could signal the end of the mania, indicating it may be time to sell.
- Pi Cycle Indicator – A death cross between the upper and lower trend lines (yellow and green lines) suggests the market may be deflating, signaling the cycle could be nearing its peak.
- Coinbase App Rank – When the Coinbase app hits #1 on the app store, it is often a sign of retail FOMO, typically marking a market top and a good opportunity to take profits.
In addition to these indicators, it is important to note that this is the first time we have a crypto-friendly government, which could boost market optimism and encourage more risk-taking, leading to further growth and innovation in crypto.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, the party has just begun, and the key is to buckle up and be ready to press that sell button when the time comes. When that moment arrives, it will be different for each of us, based on our price targets and holdings. The most important thing, however, is to remain unemotional and avoid being part of the 95% who end up as the exit liquidity in the cycle. Stay disciplined, stick to your plan, and know when to take profits.
