- Bitcoin holding $108k remains fragile as U.S. liquidity pressures mount.
- Tom Lee calls Ethereum the “biggest macro trade,” citing stablecoins, AI, and adoption.
- History shows September is weak for ETH, but Q4 often sparks stronger rallies.
Bitcoin is trying to hang onto its short-term holder cost basis around $108k, but pressure is mounting. With U.S. Treasury borrowing expected to soak up dollar liquidity in the weeks ahead, risk assets could feel the squeeze. Analysts warn this might drag BTC toward the $100k mark. While the broader macro setup looks constructive thanks to a 90% chance of a September rate cut, short-term pain could still be in the cards. The big question—if Bitcoin dips, does Ethereum get its chance to shine, or does it sink alongside?
Ethereum’s Big Catalysts, but Delayed Impact
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee hasn’t backed down on his bold Ethereum call, still targeting $12k by year-end. He framed ETH as the “biggest macro trade” of the decade, pointing to three drivers: stablecoins, AI integration, and the U.S. government’s Project Crypto initiative. Ethereum’s stablecoin supply just hit a record $160 billion, and crypto treasury data shows companies buying ETH heavily since June, with August dominated by ETH purchases. The long-term story sounds bullish—Ethereum as the settlement layer for global finance and AI—but history suggests catalysts don’t flip the switch overnight.
September: ETH’s Problem Month
If there’s one thing ETH holders dread, it’s September. Data shows that since 2017, the month has consistently delivered flat or negative returns for Ethereum. But zoom out, and the pattern changes—Q4 usually comes alive, rewarding patient holders. An overlay chart shared by analyst Elja shows a potential track to $6k ETH by the end of 2025, but with the warning that rallies don’t usually start right as autumn begins. The takeaway? ETH may need to grind through more chop before investors see the next major leg up.
