- Bitwise still sees Bitcoin hitting $200K by year-end, driven by institutional demand and ETF flows.
- Ethereum and Solana are lagging, but there’s cautious optimism for a bounce if treasury use and ETFs gain steam.
- Not all predictions aged well—memecoins flopped, Coinbase hasn’t passed Schwab, and not that many nations are rushing to hold BTC.
We’re halfway through 2025, and Bitwise is sticking to its guns—well, at least when it comes to Bitcoin. Despite a bumpy first half for crypto, the firm still believes BTC is heading for a whopping $200,000 by year-end. In a client note this week, CIO Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen broke it down: Bitcoin’s all-time high of $112K in May was no fluke—it was boosted by strong ETF inflows, more corporate treasuries stacking sats, and even a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve. Not too shabby.
But things aren’t so rosy for Ethereum and Solana. Both are down year-to-date, and the expected “everything rally” just hasn’t landed—macro pressures are still lurking, keeping the crypto bull from fully charging ahead.
Cautious Optimism for the Rest of the Year
Even with ETH and SOL struggling, Bitwise hasn’t lost hope for the second half. They’re pointing to better regulatory clarity, surging institutional interest, and massive momentum in stablecoins as solid reasons to stay optimistic. “We’re holding firm to our BTC $200k prediction,” Hougan wrote, adding that the current wave of demand is just too strong to keep Bitcoin flat for long.
As for ETH and SOL? The firm isn’t calling them dead, just… slower starters. They’re hoping new ETF approvals and growing treasury use cases give both tokens a reason to climb—eventually.
Hits, Misses, and Maybe-Laters
Bitwise’s other predictions for 2025 have had mixed results so far. They had pegged Bitcoin ETF inflows to exceed last year’s $35 billion. With $13.8B in the bag already, that call’s still very much alive—especially with major wealth platforms opening the floodgates to trillions in capital.
Their stablecoin and tokenized asset predictions are also on track. Stablecoins have jumped 30% to $260B, and tokenized real-world assets have nearly doubled to $25B. If that pace holds, they’ll hit Bitwise’s targets of $400B and $50B, respectively, by year-end.
On regulation, they scored early wins too—crypto’s back on the table for 401(k) plans, and names like Coinbase and Strategy got added to big indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, giving everyday investors a slice of crypto without even trying.
But Not Every Prediction Hit the Mark
Still, not everything’s going to plan. Bitwise’s call for memecoins launched by AI agents to dominate 2025? Yeah, that’s looking pretty dead. With TRUMP and MELANIA crashing spectacularly and LIBRA flaming out amid scandal, the memecoin hype from Q1 fizzled fast.
Their bold call that Coinbase would overtake Charles Schwab as the top brokerage also feels like a long shot now, especially with COIN’s stock falling short of that $700 dream. And while they predicted nine more countries would adopt BTC by year-end, the current count is inching along. The UAE and Pakistan made some moves, but doubling the tally by December? Might be tight.
Still, Hougan and Rasmussen aren’t backing down: “It should be an exciting H2,” they wrote.
