- Cardano is holding above $0.40 after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern
- Rising Open Interest and a growing long bias point to improving derivatives sentiment
- Geopolitical tensions could cap upside and reintroduce volatility for ADA
Cardano is starting the week on relatively steady footing, trading just above the $0.40 level after posting a clean close above a falling wedge pattern late last week. From a technical angle, that’s a constructive signal, and derivatives data seems to agree. Open Interest is climbing, long positions are ticking higher, and sentiment, at least inside the crypto bubble, is improving.
Still, it’s not all clear skies. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the US, Venezuela, and now Colombia, are injecting uncertainty into global markets. That kind of macro noise has a habit of capping upside for risk assets, ADA included, even when charts look friendly.
Derivatives Data Points to Growing Confidence
Looking at CoinGlass data, Cardano futures Open Interest jumped to roughly $851 million on Monday, up sharply from about $644 million earlier in the week. That’s the highest level seen since mid-December. Rising OI usually means fresh capital is entering the market, not just traders reshuffling existing positions, which can help sustain a rally if momentum holds.
The long-to-short ratio adds another layer. It currently sits around 1.06, creeping closer to monthly highs. With more traders leaning long than short, derivatives markets are clearly pricing in higher odds of continuation. It’s a bullish skew, though not an extreme one, which often makes the move feel a bit healthier.
ADA Breaks the Wedge, Eyes Higher Levels
On the price chart, ADA managed to break above and close over the upper boundary of a falling wedge that’s been forming since mid-October. That breakout held through the weekend, and as of Monday, price is hovering near $0.40 without much drama.
If momentum continues, the next test sits around $0.42, which lines up with the 50-day exponential moving average. A daily close above that level could open the door toward $0.49, the next notable resistance on the chart. Momentum indicators are leaning supportive too. The daily RSI sits near 55, above neutral, while the MACD has printed a bullish crossover with rising green histogram bars.
Of course, support still matters. If ADA fails to hold its recent gains, a pullback toward the $0.32 area, last week’s low, wouldn’t be out of the question.
Macro Risks Linger in the Background
Despite improving technicals and derivatives sentiment, traders are being urged to keep one eye on the bigger picture. Over the weekend, reports surfaced of a major US military action involving Venezuela, including the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. President Donald Trump later said the US would oversee Venezuela until what he described as a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” could take place.
That development adds to an already tense global environment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, tensions involving Iran persist, and the situation around Gaza continues to weigh on sentiment. Historically, this kind of backdrop tends to benefit the US dollar as a safe haven, often at the expense of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Adding fuel to the uncertainty, Trump also made comments on Monday suggesting Colombia was “run by a sick man” and hinted at openness to potential US intervention. Those remarks, cited by the Kobeissi Letter, rattled markets further and reinforced a risk-off tone.
For Cardano, that means upside may not come easily. Even with bullish signals on the chart, geopolitical pressure could slow momentum or trigger sudden pullbacks. For now, ADA sits in a technically strong spot, but the path forward looks anything but simple.
