- Bitcoin was trading around $79,500 after briefly climbing above $82,000 last week, with stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data putting pressure on rate-sensitive assets.
- The probability of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 16 climbed to around 60%, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $987 million last week, marking a third consecutive week of net inflows despite growing macro uncertainty.
Bitcoin is holding just below $80,000 after giving back part of its recent rally as traders weigh stronger U.S. employment data and rising expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $79,500 on Monday after briefly moving above $82,000 last week.
Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed the economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly above expectations of 55,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Following the report, markets raised the implied probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike on Sept. 16 to approximately 60%, according to CME FedWatch.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher following the data, putting pressure on Bitcoin and other rate-sensitive assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Attract Another $987 Million
Despite the macroeconomic pressure, institutional demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained strong.
The funds recorded $987 million in net inflows last week, extending their positive streak to three consecutive weeks.
However, QCP Capital said volatility in daily ETF flows suggests traders may be adjusting positions ahead of upcoming economic data rather than making strong directional bets.
The firm identified Bitcoin resistance between $80,000 and $82,000, with support sitting around $77,000 to $78,000.
Onchain Data Supports Bitcoin Recovery
Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has also begun strengthening.
The 30-day change in realized cap turned positive on Aug. 24 after remaining negative for 87 days, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
By Sept. 6, the measure had climbed to 0.88%, with Bitcoin’s realized capitalization increasing by $9.36 billion over the previous 30 days to reach $1.068 trillion.
A rising realized cap indicates that Bitcoin is changing hands at higher prices, which Adler said supports the ongoing recovery while BTC remains near $80,000.
Inflation Data Becomes the Next Test
Traders are now turning their attention toward two major U.S. inflation reports ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting.
Producer price data is scheduled for Thursday, followed by August CPI on Friday.
Headline CPI is expected to remain at 3.4% year over year, while core inflation is forecast to decline to 2.4%.
Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said a softer core inflation reading could provide enough evidence of disinflation for the Fed to leave rates unchanged.
However, stronger-than-expected inflation could strengthen the case for another rate hike, potentially creating additional pressure for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive markets.
