- The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April will reduce block rewards by half, which is expected to make many older, less efficient mining rigs unprofitable. Between 15-20% of the current hash rate could go offline as a result.
- According to Galaxy Digital’s analysis, models like the Bitmain S9, Canaan A1066, and MicroBT M32 will likely shut down post-halving. About half of the M20S and S17 models may stay profitable. The newest S19 models should mostly survive.
- The halving will reveal Bitcoin’s reliance on ongoing mining hardware upgrades for network security. It will test the resilience of Bitcoin’s decentralized system as hash rate makeup shifts significantly.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April is expected to significantly impact the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, as block rewards get slashed in half, according to Galaxy Digital. This will leave only the most efficient mining rigs still able to operate profitably. Between 15-20% of the network’s current hash rate could go offline post-halving.
How Will the Halving Impact Hash Rate?
Galaxy Digital analyzed the profitability breakeven point for different ASIC mining rig models based on the post-halving reality of a Bitcoin price of $45,000, block rewards reduced to 3,125 BTC, and transaction fees making up 15% of rewards. Their analysis shows that most older models like Bitmain’s S9, Canaan’s A1066, and MicroBT’s M32 will struggle to remain profitable. Meanwhile, around half of the newer MicroBT M20S and Bitmain S17 models will likely stay online. However, almost all of the Antminer S19 and S19J Pro models, which make up over 50% of the current hash rate, should survive the halving.
Which Models Will Go Offline?
Galaxy predicts that between the S9, A1066, M32, M20S, and S17 models, around 15% of the total hash rate will get shut down. Their low-end estimate sees all older models going offline entirely, with the S19s and Canaan A1246s mostly staying online. A more moderate scenario predicts nearly all older models stopping with the exception of some S17s, and about half of M20S units staying profitable. This demonstrates the halving’s harsh impact on mining with older, less efficient hardware.
The Bitcoin halving will mark a pivotal shift in network hash rate makeup and profitability. While the newest models seem likely to power on, a significant portion of mining rigs will get shut off. This will reveal just how reliant Bitcoin’s network security is on the ongoing upgrading of mining hardware. The halving’s aftermath will demonstrate the resilience and flexibility of Bitcoin’s decentralized system.
