- Bitcoin is entering its seventh week of the current “price discovery uptrend,” a stage that historically signals a looming correction before higher targets are reached.
- The latest all-time high of $124,500 might hold for now, with past cycles showing sharp drawdowns around this phase — often setting the stage for a stronger rally later.
- Analysts expect a possible September dip, but history suggests Q4 could bring explosive upside, potentially pushing BTC into new record territory.
Bitcoin has been hovering below $120,000, and according to new analysis, it might be running out of time to set fresh highs in this leg of the bull run. Popular trader Rekt Capital shared that BTC is heading into its seventh week of the current “price discovery uptrend,” a phase that historically doesn’t last much longer.
This cycle resembles earlier post-halving markets, where Bitcoin enters bursts of price discovery before cooling off into a correction. The analyst noted that in past cycles, these uptrends usually wrapped up somewhere between week 5 and week 8. If history rhymes, Bitcoin could soon face a pause — or even a pullback — before aiming for higher levels again.
A Classic Correction Zone
Bitcoin’s latest all-time high sits at $124,500, but whether it gets broken in the near-term is uncertain. Earlier cycles have shown that around week 7, corrections tend to kick in, and this aligns almost perfectly with where we are now. In 2025’s first correction phase, BTC dropped from nearly $110,000 to below $75,000 — a hefty 30% drawdown, but still within the “normal” range for Bitcoin’s volatile history.
Charts shared by Rekt Capital earlier this year even hinted at a possible target close to $160,000 if the uptrend kept momentum. But timing matters here. With corrections historically beginning right around this stage, Bitcoin could be primed for another dip before chasing that big upside.
Could Q4 Deliver the Real Breakout?
Some traders argue that a short-term flush wouldn’t be all bad news. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin hasn’t delivered back-to-back “green” August and September months before. Historically, a late-year surge has followed these pullbacks. In fact, past bull markets have often seen a sharp dip in the late summer or early fall — only to set up explosive rallies in Q4.
Data from CoinGlass supports the idea. Bitcoin is up just over 2% this August, slightly ahead of its average, but September tends to be a red month, with an average 3.8% drawdown. If that pattern holds, traders could be in for one last shakeout before a year-end rally that pushes BTC toward new highs.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s price action is entering a critical stretch. The uptrend is nearing the point where past cycles usually stall, meaning volatility could be close. A dip might feel painful, but for seasoned traders it could be the setup for an even stronger push later in the year. If Q4 follows tradition, BTC might finally break past its old highs and head toward that much-anticipated six-figure range.
