- Bitcoin funding rates are negative, signaling disbelief among traders—a pattern that often precedes price breakouts.
- Ethereum sees rising leveraged demand via ETFs and record open interest in perpetuals, though market sentiment remains cautious.
- Macro events like CPI and the Fed meeting may trigger renewed momentum, especially with positioning still light in both BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin is climbing again—back near $110,000 this week after a sharp drop to $100,500 during last Thursday’s Trump–Musk skirmish. But despite the rally, many BTC traders aren’t celebrating just yet. According to research firm K33, funding rates have turned negative across major platforms, hinting at disbelief in the rally—and that might just be the fuel for another leg up.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, pointed out that negative funding rates like those seen on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair often mark local bottoms rather than tops. Weekly rates are down to 1.3% annualized, which has historically preceded upward moves. Adding to that, leveraged ETFs like BITX are seeing weak inflows—suggesting investors are sitting on the sidelines, hesitant to pile in too early.
Ethereum Traders Dial Up the Leverage
While Bitcoin sees cautious accumulation, Ethereum is enjoying a different kind of energy. Volatility Shares’ 2x leveraged ETH ETF has exploded in popularity, now representing a significant chunk of both U.S. ETF flows and CME ETH open interest. Since early April, ETHU has added over 305,000 ETH in exposure—more than the growth in CME ETH futures. Basically, without this ETF, ETH derivatives would’ve seen a net decline.
That shows a growing appetite for leveraged ETH exposure that hasn’t translated to Bitcoin markets—at least not yet. Kraken’s Head of Derivatives, Alexia Theodorou, confirmed that ETH perpetuals hit record open interest this week at 30,000 ETH, indicating growing speculation. However, the long/short ratio remains muted, suggesting traders expect volatility, but not necessarily a clean breakout in either direction.
Macro Pressure Meets Crypto Positioning
All this comes as macro tensions build ahead of the latest CPI data and next week’s Fed meeting. BTC funding remains negative, and inflows into leveraged ETFs are soft—yet, ironically, that might be the perfect setup for a bullish surprise. Traders are underexposed, leaving room for a sharp reaction if the data turns favorable.
Ethereum, meanwhile, may benefit from more than just technical setups. Recent hints from U.S. regulators suggest a more welcoming approach toward DeFi, which could boost sentiment and adoption for ETH moving forward.
