- Bernstein analysts expect bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, reiterating their $150,000 cycle target by the end of 2025.
- Historically, bitcoin halvings have been associated with significant price fluctuations and often preceded substantial bull runs in the bitcoin market.
- Bernstein expects around 7% of the network hash rate to shut down post-halving as less efficient mining operations become unprofitable, with the industry consolidating toward four leading public miners.
Bitcoin’s next halving event, when the miners’ block subsidy reward gets cut in half, is now less than three days away. Analysts at Bernstein expect bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume post-halving, reiterating their target of $150,000 by the end of 2025.
Bernstein’s Analysis
The Bernstein analysts said that the halving itself does not lead to bitcoin price appreciation without new demand. While the miners will earn less bitcoin in subsidy rewards post-halving and therefore have less to sell to the market, this potential sell pressure has fallen significantly over time.
The analysts added that demand catalysts have often synchronized with new supply reductions following halving events, citing post-pandemic liquidity and corporate purchases of bitcoin by Tesla, Square and MicroStrategy in the 2020/21 cycle, with this cycle led by the spot bitcoin ETF approvals and leading global asset managers driving demand.
Overall, the analysts expect bitcoin to resume its bullish trajectory after the halving event when mining hash rates have adjusted and ETF inflows resume. They continue to expect bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2025.
Impact on Miners
The Bernstein analysts said they expect around 7% of the network hash rate to shut down post-halving as less efficient mining operations become unprofitable and the industry consolidates. However, they believe the chances of a more drastic hash rate reduction are lower given continued structural ETF demand.
The analysts reiterated their view that post-halving, amid increased market share, strong revenues and a growing capacity pipeline, the top public miners could outperform bitcoin over the next 12 months.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s next halving event is now less than three days away, with a potential date of April 20th. Bernstein expects bitcoin’s bullish trajectory to resume after this event, driven by adjusted mining hash rates and resumed ETF inflows. They continue to forecast a bitcoin price of $150,000 by the end of 2025.
