Bitcoin (BTC) analyst Willi Woo says that the pioneer cryptocurrency will reach 1 billion users over the next few years.
Speaking to his over 1 million Twitter followers, Woo said that the big crypto “took six months to get 1000 users; 5 years to find 1 million users.” At the moment, 13.8 years after its launch, the flagship cryptocurrency has over 300 million users, making up 4% of the world’s population. He posted the following chart on Twitter comparing internet and Bitcoin adoption curves against the world’s population.
In early 2021, Woo also posted a similar adoption curve, noting that Bitcoin had approximately the same number of users as the internet had in 1997. However, both adoption curves show that BTC adoption is growing faster than the internet. At the current growth rates, Willy Woo holds that Bitcoin will hit 1 billion unique users in the next three years, making up about 12% of the world’s population. That is between 2025 and 2026.
Woo quickly warns his followers that “unique users” are “not addressed.” He said:
“To clarify, these are unique users, not addresses. Early data is via @glassnode on-chain forensics, addresses clustered into users according to historical behavior. Users emptying their wallets are removed from the count. Then add unique ID-verified exchange accounts & de-dupe.”
The on-chain analysts forecast that 12% of the world’s population will be using the big crypto in the next three years is a purely optimistic outlook of the industry even as other industry insiders paint a different picture holding that the crypto industry as a whole (not just Bitcoin) will hit that milestone by 2030.
Crypto, and NOT Just BTC, To Hit 1 Billion Users By 2030
For example, a joint report by Bitget, Foresight ventures, and Boston Consulting Group published on July 22, 2022, revealed that crypto adoption was still slow compared to conventional investment assets. According to the report, crypto will reach 1 billion users by the decade’s end.
Another report by the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) stated that crypto adoption was still in its very early stages. According to the report, there were approximately 50 million active Ethereum users as of May 2022. Compared to internet adoption, the a16z report corroborates Woo’s views that blockchain adoption is currently around the 1995 level – a very early stage, as was with the internet. The world achieved 1 billion internet users in 2005. Therefore, if the adoption goes at the same pace, it would mean that crypto and the underlying blockchain technology will achieve 1 billion users at the turn of the decade, 2031.
A similar prediction was made by Coinbase Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Brian Armstrong, noting that one billion people will be using cryptocurrencies within the next ten years. Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference in May, Armstrong said:
“I guess that in 10-2- years, we’ll see a substantial portion of GDP happening in the crypto economy.”
Looking at the first country to legalize the use of Bitcoin as a legal tender, El Salvador, the number of people using BTC is precise.
“nearly matched its (the country’s) banking adoption” less than a year after the launch. Data shows that 40% of the El Salvador population downloads the government’s Chivo wallet, with 20% continuing to use it as of May 2022. Note Bitcoin was only launched in the country in September 2021.
This points to a fast-growing Bitcoin adoption that puts the curve on course to 1 billion users. Whether it will be achieved in 2025 or by the turn of the decade remains to be seen.
