- Galaxy Research has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to 30%.
- The firm says the shrinking legislative calendar, uncertain bipartisan support, and procedural hurdles are threatening the bill’s chances.
- Industry groups and crypto leaders are urging the Senate to act before lawmakers leave for the August recess.
Galaxy Research has become more pessimistic about the prospects for the CLARITY Act, reducing its estimated probability of the landmark crypto legislation becoming law this year.
In a new report, Galaxy Head of Research Alex Thorn lowered the firm’s forecast from 50% to 30%, citing the increasingly limited time available for the Senate to advance the bill before lawmakers depart Washington for the August recess.
While negotiations have continued and an updated draft has finally been released, Galaxy believes the path to passage has become significantly more difficult.
Legislative Calendar Becomes the Biggest Challenge
According to Thorn, the biggest obstacle facing the CLARITY Act is no longer the legislation itself but the congressional calendar.
The Senate recently unveiled a 616-page draft combining work from both the Banking and Agriculture Committees while incorporating ethics provisions and other revisions.
However, with only a handful of legislative days remaining before the August recess, Thorn argues that supporters would need a rapid bipartisan agreement to move the bill through the Senate and onto the President’s desk this year.
Bipartisan Support Remains Uncertain
Despite months of negotiations, several Democratic senators have continued to express concerns about the latest version of the legislation.
Lawmakers have called for stronger provisions covering ethics standards, consumer protections, conflicts of interest, and measures addressing illicit finance before offering their support.
Because the CLARITY Act is expected to require bipartisan backing to pass the Senate, those outstanding concerns continue to cloud its legislative outlook.
Industry Pushes for Immediate Action
The crypto industry is continuing its efforts to build momentum behind the legislation.
The Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber jointly urged Senate leadership to prioritize floor consideration of the bill, arguing that it would establish long-awaited federal rules for digital assets while strengthening consumer protections.
Meanwhile, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said the legislation’s biggest hurdle is procedural rather than political, suggesting that if the bill reaches a full Senate vote, it has a strong chance of passing.
Crypto Industry Awaits a Defining Decision
The CLARITY Act is widely viewed as one of the most important pieces of cryptocurrency legislation currently under consideration in the United States.
If enacted, it would establish clearer regulatory responsibilities, create a more comprehensive market structure framework, and provide greater legal certainty for digital asset companies and investors.
With time rapidly running out before Congress begins its August recess, the coming days may determine whether the legislation advances this year or faces additional delays.
