- William Blair lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase due to weaker-than-expected crypto trading activity.
- Despite the cuts, the firm maintained its Outperform rating, arguing the crypto market may be nearing a cyclical bottom.
- Analysts believe new revenue streams, including Base, derivatives, and prediction markets, could drive Coinbase’s next phase of growth.
William Blair has lowered its financial forecasts for Coinbase, citing softer cryptocurrency trading volumes than previously expected. However, the investment firm remains optimistic about the exchange’s long-term outlook, arguing that the current crypto downturn could be approaching its final stages.
The firm reduced its 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and its 2027 forecast by 13%, while also cutting adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% for both years. Even with the lower expectations, analysts believe Coinbase’s earnings could bottom before the end of this year and begin recovering in 2027.
The report suggests investors should remain patient as the company positions itself for the next crypto market cycle.
Trading Activity Expected to Recover
William Blair expects Coinbase’s total trading volume to decline approximately 44% this year to around $669 billion before rebounding by more than 32% in 2027.
Analysts acknowledged that trading activity has remained weaker than anticipated, but they argued that the current market environment differs significantly from the prolonged bear market experienced in 2022.
According to the firm, several structural improvements—including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing institutional participation, and a more supportive regulatory environment—could help fuel a stronger recovery once trading activity begins to improve.
Coinbase Is Becoming More Than a Crypto Exchange
Beyond traditional spot trading, William Blair believes Coinbase is building multiple new revenue streams that could reduce its dependence on transaction fees over time.
Analysts highlighted the company’s expansion into retail derivatives, prediction markets, and other financial products designed to diversify earnings.
One of the biggest long-term opportunities remains Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 blockchain. The firm believes Base could become a meaningful earnings contributor through transaction activity, sequencer fees, and the possibility of a future ecosystem token.
Tokenization Could Become a Major Growth Driver
William Blair also pointed to Coinbase’s strong position within the rapidly expanding tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market.
As more traditional assets migrate onto blockchain networks, Base could benefit from increased trading activity and infrastructure demand. Industry estimates currently place the tokenized real-world asset market at more than $22.5 billion, with many analysts expecting continued expansion over the coming years.
The firm’s outlook suggests Coinbase is well positioned to benefit from that trend as institutional adoption of blockchain technology accelerates.
Analysts Remain Bullish Despite Near-Term Weakness
Coinbase shares rose roughly 1% in early trading following the report, although the stock remains down approximately 32% year-to-date. Bitcoin has also experienced a difficult year, declining around 26% over the same period.
While William Blair expects Wall Street to continue lowering near-term earnings expectations, it believes much of the market weakness has already been reflected in Coinbase’s valuation.
If crypto trading volumes begin recovering alongside broader industry growth, analysts believe Coinbase could be one of the primary beneficiaries as new business lines begin contributing a larger share of overall revenue.
