- Claude AI believes Solana could climb to $180 by December if key resistance breaks and institutional demand continues to grow.
- Despite SOL’s falling price, on-chain data shows record SOL-denominated total value locked, signaling continued ecosystem commitment.
- Weak user activity and declining network revenue remain major risks that could send SOL back toward $55.
Solana has spent months frustrating investors as its price continued sliding lower. On the surface, the chart looks weak, sentiment remains shaky, and network activity has cooled noticeably. Yet beneath all of that, Claude AI has identified an unusual divergence that could change how investors look at SOL over the coming months.
According to the AI model, Solana still has a realistic path toward $180 before the end of the year. That outlook isn’t based on hype or short-term momentum. Instead, it centers on on-chain data that suggests users are continuing to commit capital to the ecosystem, even while the token itself struggles.
It’s a disconnect that many traders may be overlooking.
Record On-Chain Commitment Tells a Different Story
While Solana’s total value locked measured in U.S. dollars has declined alongside crypto prices, the amount of SOL deposited across decentralized applications has actually reached a record high. The network now holds more than 80 million SOL in total value locked, an all-time high measured in native tokens.
That distinction matters.
When TVL rises in SOL terms while price falls, it suggests holders are choosing to lock more of their tokens into the ecosystem rather than selling them. Historically, this type of quiet accumulation has appeared before major recoveries. Ethereum displayed a remarkably similar pattern ahead of the DeFi boom in 2020, when on-chain participation strengthened long before prices reflected the shift.
Institutional adoption is also beginning to provide support. Spot Solana ETFs are now live and reportedly manage between $500 million and $1 billion in assets. At the same time, firms including Goldman Sachs have disclosed exposure to SOL, while BlackRock’s tokenized BUIDL fund has processed more than $500 million worth of on-chain activity. Those developments suggest institutional interest remains alive despite the challenging market.
Another catalyst could arrive in the third quarter through Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade. The update is expected to reduce transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds, improving both speed and network efficiency. If delivered successfully, it could strengthen Solana’s competitive position among high-performance blockchains.
A Break Above $95 Could Shift Momentum
Claude AI identifies the $92 to $95 region as the level that could determine whether Solana’s outlook changes. A decisive breakout above that resistance, particularly if Bitcoin begins another move toward six figures, could open the door to the model’s $180 year-end target.
Until then, the market remains stuck inside a broad consolidation range.
The Bear Case Cannot Be Ignored
The optimistic outlook comes with significant risks, and many of them are already visible.
Monthly active users have fallen to roughly 34.1 million, the lowest level in nearly two years. Network fees have dropped about 50% since January, reflecting weaker on-chain demand, while decentralized exchange volume has collapsed from approximately $145 billion to just $42 billion.
Confidence also took a hit earlier this year after a major DeFi exploit in April disrupted the ecosystem and erased billions in value over a matter of days. Events like that often leave lasting effects on investor sentiment, even after technical issues are resolved.
If user activity continues to weaken and Solana fails to reclaim the $92 resistance before broader market conditions deteriorate, downside risks remain significant. A move below $78 could expose SOL to another decline toward the $55 area, revisiting levels last seen during the early-2026 capitulation.
Solana Is Sitting at a Crossroads
The daily chart reflects that uncertainty. SOL is currently trading around $68 after falling dramatically from highs above $250 reached last September. Most of the damage came during January, when the token plunged from around $150 into triple-digit territory within just a few weeks.
Since February, however, price has largely moved sideways between roughly $65 and $100. Some traders see that as simple stagnation. Others view it as a prolonged accumulation phase, supported by the record SOL-denominated TVL quietly building beneath the surface.
For now, neither side has complete control.
Everything appears to come back to one price level. If buyers can reclaim the $92 to $95 resistance zone, Claude AI believes Solana’s bullish thesis becomes far more convincing. If that resistance continues holding and network activity keeps fading, the bears may remain in charge for a while longer.
