- XRP is testing the key $1.00 level as technical and on-chain indicators continue to weaken.
- Glassnode data shows long-term capitulation is intensifying, with holders realizing significantly more losses than profits.
- A rebound toward $1.10 remains possible, but a break below $1 could trigger another wave of selling.
XRP is once again approaching one of its most important price levels, with the token drifting closer to the psychological $1.00 mark. The recent decline doesn’t appear to be driven by a short-lived burst of panic either. Instead, technical indicators and on-chain data both point toward a broader structural sell-off that has been building for weeks. While some traders are hoping for a relief bounce, the overall trend remains firmly tilted to the downside.
From a technical standpoint, the picture hasn’t improved much. XRP continues to trade well below its major moving averages, with the 50-day sitting around $1.27, the 100-day near $1.33, and the 200-day close to $1.52. All three are sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish structure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has slipped to roughly 30.7, placing XRP on the edge of oversold territory. That doesn’t automatically mean a reversal is coming, but it does suggest sellers may be running out of momentum, at least temporarily. Interestingly, today’s rebound from the session low was accompanied by the strongest green volume bar seen in recent weeks, hinting that buyers haven’t disappeared completely.
Technical Levels Place $1 Under the Spotlight
The immediate support zone sits between $1.01 and $1.03, with the psychologically significant $1.00 level acting as the final line before the chart opens into relatively empty territory. Below that, there is very little historical support until prices move further into sub-$1 territory.
On the upside, traders will likely focus first on the $1.10 to $1.12 area, which served as last week’s consolidation range before the breakdown accelerated. Beyond that, resistance becomes even stronger around $1.20 and eventually $1.27, where the declining 50-day moving average now sits. Until XRP can reclaim those levels, rallies may continue to face heavy selling pressure.
On-Chain Data Suggests Capitulation Is Deepening
Price charts tell only part of the story. Glassnode’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio paints an even more sobering picture of investor behavior. The indicator’s 90-day moving average has fallen to 0.33, its weakest reading since August 2022.
Simply put, the network is realizing far more losses than profits. A reading below one already means losses outweigh gains, but a ratio of 0.33 suggests investors are locking in losses at roughly three times the rate of realized profits. Because the data uses a 90-day average, this isn’t the result of a single volatile trading session. It’s evidence of a prolonged shift in sentiment, with underwater holders steadily exiting their positions over several months rather than reacting to one sharp sell-off.
The comparison with the 2022 bear market is certainly notable, but it shouldn’t be mistaken for an automatic buy signal. Similar capitulation phases have lasted far longer than many expected in previous cycles. For now, the data indicates that the washout is still unfolding instead of confirming that a bottom has already formed.
Macro Conditions Continue to Pressure Crypto Markets
XRP’s struggles are unfolding against a challenging macro backdrop as well. Broader crypto markets remain heavily influenced by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest-rate policy, which continues to shape overall investor appetite for risk. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions, including recent developments around the Strait of Hormuz, have added another layer of uncertainty to global financial markets.
In this kind of risk-off environment, speculative assets such as XRP often face the strongest selling pressure. That’s one reason why relief rallies have repeatedly faded instead of developing into sustainable recoveries. Until macro conditions improve and investor confidence returns, buyers may continue approaching the market with caution.
For XRP holders, the next few trading sessions could prove especially important. If the token manages to defend the $1.00 level while attracting additional buying volume, a recovery toward the $1.10-$1.12 resistance zone becomes increasingly possible. However, a decisive breakdown below that psychological floor could expose XRP to another leg lower, extending the current consolidation phase and keeping bearish sentiment firmly in control.
