- Cardano remains under pressure after losing more than 11% this week.
- Derivatives data shows traders are leaning bearish, with falling open interest and a weak long-to-short ratio.
- ADA could still rebound later, but technical signals currently point to more downside risk.
Cardano continues to struggle as selling pressure builds across the broader crypto market. ADA was trading below $0.165 on Friday, extending its weekly decline to more than 11%. The move has left traders cautious, especially as both derivatives data and on-chain activity suggest that bearish sentiment is still hanging over the asset, at least for now.
Derivatives Data Points to Bearish Sentiment
Cardano’s derivatives market is flashing a weaker setup. CoinGlass data shows ADA’s long-to-short ratio sitting near 0.62, close to its lowest level in more than a month. Since a reading below one usually means more traders are betting against the asset than betting on a rise, this signals that short sellers currently have the upper hand.
Open interest is also moving in the wrong direction. ADA futures open interest dropped to around $345 million on Friday, continuing a decline that has been developing since mid-May. This fall suggests that investor participation is thinning out, and when fewer traders are willing to keep positions open, it often reflects lower confidence in a near-term recovery.
Holders Taking Losses Add More Pressure
On-chain data is not offering much comfort either. Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss indicator for Cardano fell sharply on Wednesday, showing that many holders were selling at a loss. That kind of move often points to panic selling, or at least some level of market capitulation, which can add even more pressure to the price in the short term.
Still, there is a small twist here. Long periods of capitulation can sometimes mean that sellers are getting exhausted. This happened during the mid-April decline, when ADA later managed to recover slightly after heavy loss-taking. So, while the current data looks bearish, it does not fully rule out a rebound if buyers step back in with enough strength.
Cardano Price Outlook Remains Weak
ADA is trading around $0.162, and the short-term structure still looks heavy. The price remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are spread between roughly $0.210 and $0.320. That tells a simple story: Cardano has a lot of work to do before its trend can look healthy again.
The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 31, just above the oversold zone. This suggests downside momentum may be getting stretched, but not enough to confirm a real reversal yet. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned slightly positive, though the signal is still weak and feels more like fading bearish pressure than a clean bullish shift.
Key Levels ADA Traders Are Watching
On the upside, ADA’s first major resistance sits near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.181. If buyers can clear that level, the next targets would be around $0.202 and the 50-day EMA near $0.210. Beyond that, resistance becomes even thicker, with several important levels clustered between $0.218 and $0.245.
On the downside, immediate support sits near the June 6 low around $0.148. A break below that level could open the door to fresh bearish territory and possibly extend Cardano’s current downtrend. For now, ADA remains stuck in a fragile position, and bulls need a stronger move soon, otherwise sellers may keep control.
