- SOL gained 2.4%, but on-chain metrics like transactions and revenue are weakening
- Technical indicators show rising momentum, with a possible breakout toward $99–$100
- Long-term fundamentals remain strong, including growth in stablecoins, DeFi volume, and RWAs
Solana just posted a 2.4% gain in the last 24 hours, which on the surface looks like momentum is finally waking up. But under the hood, the picture is a bit messier. Price is trying to push higher, while core on-chain metrics are still drifting lower… and that mismatch is getting harder to ignore.
So the big question now is simple, but important: can this short-term push actually turn into a real trend, or is it just a temporary bounce before another fade?
Network Activity Has Softened Again
One of the clearest warning signs is transaction activity. Daily transactions dropped to around 79.8 million, according to Artemis, a level we last saw back in January 2026. And during that stretch, SOL fell hard—roughly 32%, sliding from $148 to near $99.
That doesn’t mean the same thing has to happen again, but it does raise eyebrows.
Revenue is also moving in the wrong direction. It’s been trending lower and mostly stuck in a range, which lines up with weaker transaction counts and lower fee generation. When usage slows down like this, it usually points to softer demand across the network, and for Solana, usage is a huge part of the value story.
Trading Momentum Is Telling a Different Story
At the same time, market indicators are showing the opposite. Price action is starting to look stronger, and there’s a decent chance SOL could test the $99–$100 area if momentum holds.
The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line has been rising for five straight days, which suggests buyers are quietly stepping in. Volume also backed that up, climbing to nearly 65 million. That’s not explosive, but it’s enough to show interest is returning.
Then there’s the MACD, which is trending higher and getting close to a bullish crossover. If that crossover confirms, it would signal strengthening momentum and raise the odds of a continued move higher.
A Breakout Is Possible, But It Needs Follow-Through
Technically, SOL is pressing against descending channel resistance. If buyers keep accumulating and volume stays healthy, a breakout above that line could send price toward $99 pretty quickly.
But there’s a catch, of course. Without stronger on-chain support, breakouts can fail. Price can run ahead of fundamentals for a while, sure, but eventually the two usually reconnect.
So this move needs follow-through. Not just candles, but real participation.
The Longer-Term Picture Still Looks Strong
Zooming out, though, Solana’s broader setup still looks solid. Stablecoin supply on the network rose 5% in Q1, and DeFi volume hit around $500 billion, which was the highest among major chains. That’s not small—it shows the ecosystem is still attracting serious activity over time.
Adoption is also expanding in ways that matter. New users keep coming in, and there’s growing overlap with traditional finance. One standout metric: Solana’s real-world asset (RWA) value reached $2 billion last quarter.
That kind of growth suggests the current divergence may be temporary. If price momentum keeps building, there’s a good chance on-chain metrics stabilize and catch up again—just like they did earlier this year.
