- Dogecoin whales have sold around 150 million DOGE recently, signaling caution rather than accumulation.
- Derivatives data shows crowded longs and rising Open Interest, increasing volatility and liquidation risk.
- Price remains supported within a descending channel, keeping $0.25 in focus if structure improves.
Large Dogecoin holders have continued cutting exposure, with roughly 150 million DOGE sold over the past five days. This wave of selling didn’t happen near euphoric highs either, but closer to the lower half of DOGE’s recent trading range, hinting that whales reacted to weakening structure rather than chasing profits on strength. It feels less like aggressive distribution and more like cautious risk reduction, though the effect on price still matters.
Interestingly, the market absorbed this supply without a sharp collapse. Prices held relatively steady, suggesting that smaller participants or passive buyers stepped in, at least for now. Still, repeated sell-side pressure has capped upside attempts, keeping rallies short-lived and momentum muted.
Derivatives Traders Stay Bullish Against the Trend
While spot data shows whales stepping back, derivatives traders appear to be leaning the other way. Binance data showed more than 70 percent of accounts positioned long, pushing the long-to-short ratio close to 2.4, a pretty heavy imbalance. That kind of optimism looks detached from the broader spot weakness, or maybe just hopeful, depending on how you see it.
Crowded longs tend to work until they don’t. When price fails to respond positively, confidence erodes fast, and exits can turn messy. For now, the market is stuck in a tug-of-war between belief in a bounce and a structure that hasn’t quite earned that confidence yet.
Rising Open Interest Signals Fragile Conviction
Open Interest climbed to around $1.49 billion, up roughly 1.6 percent even as DOGE drifted lower on the charts. That divergence matters because rising Open Interest during weakness usually points to added leverage, not fresh organic demand. Traders are clearly positioning for a reversal, likely remembering past meme-driven rebounds that came out of nowhere.
The problem is leverage cuts both ways. When structure doesn’t confirm, higher Open Interest increases liquidation risk rather than strength. Instead of supporting a clean recovery, leverage-heavy positioning tends to amplify short-term volatility, leaving DOGE in a fragile state where reactions around key levels can get sharp, fast.
Descending Channel Still Defines the Battlefield
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading within a well-defined descending channel that’s been guiding price action since early October. Lower highs, lower lows, the pattern has been consistent, with price hovering near the lower boundary around $0.12. Historically, that zone has slowed downside momentum rather than triggering panic selling.
Momentum indicators added an interesting layer. The RSI sat near 36, below neutral but stabilizing instead of accelerating lower, hinting that bearish pressure may be easing. If DOGE can reclaim the mid-range resistance between $0.155 and $0.186, it would mark the first real structural shift in months, opening the door toward the $0.206–$0.25 supply zone.
Short Liquidations Add to the Volatility Mix
Liquidation data revealed something subtle but important. Short liquidations outweighed longs, even within a broader downtrend, with shorts losing roughly $69.8k versus $5.6k for longs. This suggests traders have been aggressively shorting local lows, only to get caught in sharp intraday squeezes.
These rebounds punish late bearish entries while the longer-term structure still leans corrective. The result is choppy, uncomfortable price action where neither side holds control for long. Volatility rises, clarity doesn’t, and patience gets tested on both ends.
In conclusion, despite ongoing whale selling, Dogecoin is showing more signs of stabilization than outright breakdown. Channel support continues to hold, momentum is no longer deteriorating rapidly, and bearish pressure looks increasingly exhausted.
If DOGE can maintain its current support and reclaim nearby resistance, the structure would tilt toward recovery rather than continuation lower. In that scenario, a move toward the $0.25 zone remains the dominant upside path to watch, even if the road there stays noisy.
