- Bitcoin could drop to $95K before rebounding to $110K, according to top analysts.
- The 30-week cycle is nearing completion, signaling potential exhaustion among sellers.
- A break below $100K could mark a short-term bottom before long-term recovery resumes.
A leading crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could dip toward $95,000 before staging a sharp rebound that retests $110,000. The current correction phase appears tied to a maturing 30-week cycle, with momentum indicators softening and traders eyeing the 300-day moving average (SMA) as a potential turning point.
Bitcoin Testing the 300-Day SMA
Historically, every time Bitcoin has fallen below the 300-day SMA, it’s marked a point of exhaustion among sellers — often followed by a V-shaped recovery. Analysts say BTC is now displaying a similar pattern, hovering just beneath this long-term support line after sliding from its mid-year highs.
If this fractal pattern holds, Bitcoin could see a rebound back toward $110,000, but a sustained close below the 300-day average might open the door to deeper losses before the next leg higher.
30-Week Cycle Nears Completion
Market cycle expert Bob Loukas noted that Bitcoin’s 30-week cycle appears to be nearing maturity, typically a stage marked by fading momentum and investor uncertainty. Historically, such cycles include an early bottom, a strong mid-cycle rally, and a final corrective phase — after which major uptrends often resume.
The current cycle seems to be following that exact trajectory, suggesting that Bitcoin could soon enter the reaccumulation phase before a new rally begins.
Key Support Break Raises Risk
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Bitcoin has broken below the $106K–$107K support zone, a level that previously held as a stable floor. The breakdown exposes BTC to a potential retest of the lower boundary of its recent range — likely near $95K — where the next wave of buying interest could emerge.
On-chain data shows that liquidity thins out below current prices, meaning further selling pressure could accelerate downside movement. Whale distribution remains high, creating persistent headwinds for short-term recovery.
Capitulation May Offer New Entry Points
According to Glassnode, short-term holders are now under stress, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator sliding to -0.058, nearing its weakest level since April. This “capitulation zone” historically aligns with accumulation phases by long-term investors, suggesting attractive entry opportunities may be forming if the correction extends.
While short-term sentiment remains fragile, analysts agree that the $95K region could serve as a key inflection point — where Bitcoin either finds its next major bottom or confirms a deeper correction.
