- Bitcoin dropped to $103,732, eyeing a possible retest of the $100K level.
- Analysts warn a CME gap near $92K could be next if support breaks.
- Short-term holders have entered capitulation, a potential long-term accumulation signal.
Bitcoin’s losing streak just got heavier. The flagship crypto slipped again on Tuesday, tumbling to $103,732 on Bitstamp — down over 2% for the day — and traders are starting to talk seriously about a possible drop below $100,000. The Asian session kicked things off with early weakness, and sentiment across markets hasn’t improved much since.
“$BTC is in absolute free fall right now,” investor Ted Pillows said on X, summing up the mood. “There’s no strong support until the $100,000 level, which means it’ll most likely get retested.”
That level now feels like the last line in the sand. But Pillows also pointed to a CME Futures gap around $92,000, sitting just under Bitcoin’s 2025 yearly open. “If Bitcoin loses the $100K zone, expect a correction towards $92K,” he added, hinting that a full retrace might be on the table.
Market Structure Weakens as Key Support Breaks
Trader Daan Crypto Trades echoed the warning, noting that BTC had lost its main support zone from the past few weeks. “Now nearing the bottom of the range where price made its initial higher low after the 10/10 liquidation event,” he wrote on X — referring to the October 10th flash crash that sent markets reeling.
Adding to the pressure, whale selling has picked up again, just as U.S. equities start cooling off and the dollar strengthens, both of which tend to hurt crypto momentum. “All in all, not a great recipe for the time being,” Daan concluded.
Elsewhere, derivatives trader Ardi noted Bitcoin is now hovering close to the October 10th candle wick at $102,000— a level that happens to align perfectly with the 50-week EMA, which hasn’t been touched in seven months. If that line gives way, the door opens for deeper tests below $100K.
Short-Term Holders Hit “Capitulation” Zone
The pain isn’t just on the charts — it’s showing up on-chain too. Recent buyers are starting to crack under pressure, with many now sitting on losses.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders (STHs) has dropped back into capitulation territory, sitting around -0.058, its lowest since April. That basically means investors who’ve held BTC for less than five months are underwater.
Historically, though, this kind of stress period has marked prime accumulation zones for patient players. “Such phases often offer attractive opportunities for those willing to wait it out,” Glassnode noted.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s short-term setup looks shaky, but that’s often when longer-term investors start paying attention. If $100K fails to hold, the next key level sits near $92K, where the CME gap and long-term trendlines converge.
For now, it’s all about patience. Capitulation may sting, but history suggests it’s also where the best recoveries tend to start forming — quietly, while everyone else is looking away.
