- ADA trades at $0.86, up 70% from yearly lows.
- Grayscale’s ADA ETF decision due Oct 27, with approval odds at 83%.
- Technicals point toward a breakout target of $1.325, a 56% jump.
Cardano (ADA) is back in the headlines, and this time the buzz feels bigger than usual. The token is trading near $0.862 as of August 28—up almost 70% from its lows earlier this year. Now, all eyes are on one catalyst that could define ADA’s next major move: the pending decision on Grayscale’s ADA ETF.
If approved, this would mark a turning point not just for Cardano but for crypto ETFs as a whole. With speculation heating up and price action aligning with bullish technical patterns, ADA might be setting the stage for a breakout investors have been waiting for.
ADA ETF Approval Odds Surge
Polymarket data shows confidence is climbing fast. Traders are now giving an 83% chance that the SEC will approve Grayscale’s ADA ETF in 2025—up from just 42% in June. Nearly $400,000 has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most-watched events in the altcoin market.
The SEC has set its final deadline for October 27. After repeated delays, many analysts believe approval is more likely this time, especially since Cardano, like Ethereum, is considered a mainstream, liquid crypto asset with more than $1.3 billion in daily trading volume.
If greenlit, an ADA ETF would open the door to broader participation from U.S. investors. We’ve already seen what ETFs can do: spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $54 billion in inflows, while Ethereum funds attracted $13.6 billion. Cardano’s addition to that list could be a game-changer.
Beyond the ETF: Ecosystem Catalysts
ETF speculation isn’t the only thing pushing ADA’s narrative forward. Founder Charles Hoskinson has hinted at a potential Ripple (XRP) partnership, which would give ADA another boost of mainstream credibility. Developers are also hard at work on Midnight, a sidechain expected to launch later this year.
Meanwhile, the Glacier airdrop continues to distribute NIGHT tokens to Cardano holders, adding even more incentive for users to stick with the ecosystem. Together, these developments create a multi-layered bullish story, not just a single point of hype.
Cardano Technical Analysis: Bullish Patterns in Play
From a chart perspective, ADA’s setup looks strong. On the daily timeframe, the token has carved out a double-bottom pattern at $0.516 (April and June lows), with a neckline retest at $0.850. Breaking and holding this neckline is often a signal for a continued rally.
Even more promising, Cardano has flashed a golden cross, where the 50-day moving average climbs above the 200-day—a classic bullish indicator. At the same time, ADA seems to be forming a bullish flag, often seen before another leg higher.
If these patterns play out, ADA could be headed for $1.325, its November high. That’s about a 56% upside from its current level.
Conclusion
Cardano’s next few months look loaded with catalysts: the high-stakes ETF deadline, ecosystem upgrades, and bullish chart structures. Together, they paint a picture of a project with steady fundamentals but also the potential for a sharp move higher.
Still, as always in crypto, timing is everything. Traders will be watching October 27 closely—because if the ETF is approved, ADA could finally have the spark it needs to test fresh highs.
