- Novogratz says a $1M Bitcoin next year would reflect U.S. economic collapse, not success.
- He’s critical of rising deficits under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and sees risks in the Bitcoin treasury craze.
- While bullish on BTC long-term, Novogratz warns current adoption patterns have signs of bubble behavior.
Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz has thrown cold water on the idea that a million-dollar Bitcoin next year would be something to cheer about. Instead, he told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast that such a surge would only happen if the U.S. economy was in “a pretty shitty place,” marked by deep instability and a broken financial system. For him, Bitcoin moonshots are less exciting than a stable country.
Novogratz explained that while collapsing fiat currencies push people into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, it often comes at a massive cost to civil society. He even added that he’d much rather see a lower BTC price with a healthier economy than soaring charts fueled by economic pain. Other voices like Wolf Of All Streets and Samson Mow have speculated about a million-dollar Bitcoin within the next year or two, but Novogratz isn’t convinced that kind of fast-track rally would be a win for anyone.
U.S. Debt and Treasury Concerns
The billionaire also took aim at U.S. debt management under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, saying he’s “failing” to bend the debt-to-GDP curve. According to Novogratz, deficits are heading higher, not lower, and that’s a big red flag. While he supports Bitcoin’s long-term adoption, he worries about the frenzy building around treasury companies piling BTC onto balance sheets. Galaxy Digital itself now gets around five calls a week from firms eager to jump on the Bitcoin bandwagon—a classic sign of bubble-like behavior, he warned.
Bubble Signals in Bitcoin Treasuries
Novogratz pointed out that while corporate treasuries adopting BTC can be bullish, it’s also risky if it turns into a herd-like rush. He compared it to the cab driver moment in classic bubbles, where everyone suddenly wants in, regardless of fundamentals. Venture firms like Breed have echoed these concerns, noting only a few treasury players will survive while others could face “death spirals” if their holdings trade too close to net asset value.
A Fragile Balance
Despite Bitcoin being up nearly 100% over the last 12 months, Novogratz remains cautious. His stance is clear: Bitcoin’s rise is inevitable in the long term, but cheering for unrealistic price explosions tied to economic collapse is missing the bigger picture. For him, the true victory isn’t Bitcoin hitting $1M—it’s Bitcoin thriving alongside a stable and functional U.S. economy.
