- XRP has spent roughly 70 days below its 50-week SMA, a timeframe that historically preceded major upside moves rather than deeper sell-offs.
- Past cycles show XRP often rallies sharply after reclaiming and holding this level, with gains ranging from 70% to over 800%.
- The current structure resembles long consolidation phases seen in assets like gold and silver, where major rallies followed patience, not panic.
XRP is back at a spot long-time holders know all too well. Market watcher STEPH recently pointed out that in every major cycle, XRP has dipped below its 50-week simple moving average, stayed there for a while, and then… turned sharply higher. Not immediately, not dramatically at first, but steadily enough to catch attention later.
Historically, the numbers are hard to ignore. In previous cycles, XRP spent anywhere from 49 to 84 days below the 50-week SMA before reversing course. What followed were rallies ranging from roughly 70% on the low end to almost 850% on the high end. Right now, XRP has been sitting below that same level for about 70 days. That places it squarely inside a zone that, in the past, has marked the end of heavy downside pressure rather than the start of something worse.
Why the 50-Week SMA Still Matters
Looking at XRP’s weekly chart, it becomes clear why the 50-week SMA keeps showing up in these discussions. This moving average has consistently acted as a long-term trend filter, separating accumulation phases from expansion phases.
Back in 2017, once XRP reclaimed the 50-week SMA after a long base, the price moved aggressively higher within roughly ten weeks. It wasn’t a slow grind. It was a clear shift in behavior, from quiet accumulation into rapid expansion.
The 2021 cycle followed a similar script, just on a smaller scale. XRP moved back above the 50-week SMA, held it briefly, and then pushed roughly 70% higher in about seven weeks. Same rhythm, different magnitude. Reclaim the level, hold it, then let momentum build.
In the current cycle, the structure appears familiar again, only stretched out. XRP moved around its 50-week average, eventually pushed above it, and then surged more than 800% over a 10–12 week window. The pullback that followed wasn’t unexpected. Now, price is hovering near a rising 50-week SMA once again, not collapsing, just… resetting.
A Base That Looks Uncomfortable Before It Works
STEPH also drew a comparison that goes beyond crypto. Gold and silver went through similar long, boring phases before their major moves. Both assets spent years chopping sideways, losing market interest along the way. Participation faded. Sentiment cooled.
Then came a final shakeout, followed by a broad base. The big rallies didn’t start during the panic. They started after the base was already built.
Silver, for example, formed a higher low from late 2022 into early 2023 before launching into a strong move from 2025 to 2026. Gold followed a comparable path after its extended consolidation and clean breakout. The key detail is timing. The expansion came after patience, not during fear.
XRP’s current structure feels similar. It has spent years forming a wide range since its last peak, compressing volatility and interest at the same time. That kind of base doesn’t guarantee a breakout, but historically, it’s often where larger moves are born. Right now, XRP still looks like it’s building, not breaking.
