- Solana’s real-world asset ecosystem reached $1.66 billion, supported by rising dApp revenue and ETF inflows.
- Despite strong fundamentals, SOL remains in a long-term descending channel with a bearish monthly SuperTrend signal.
- On-chain accumulation has slowed and only about 20% of addresses are in profit, suggesting further downside risk remains.
Solana’s real-world asset ecosystem just crossed a notable milestone, hitting $1.66 billion in tokenized value. That’s not a small number. It reflects steady capital migration on-chain and growing institutional comfort with Solana’s settlement layer. In a vacuum, those fundamentals look strong, maybe even impressive.
AMBCrypto previously highlighted Solana as one of the leaders in dApp revenue generation. Add in spot ETF inflows and consistently high network activity, and the narrative becomes even more compelling. Even during broader risk-off conditions, Solana’s app revenue capture ratio jumped from 262% to 375%, suggesting the ecosystem is extracting more value per user than before.
And yet, price refuses to cooperate.
The Downtrend Still Dominates
Zooming out to the weekly chart, the long-term descending channel remains intact. No breakout. No structural shift. Just a persistent downward slope that continues to cap rallies. There are notable imbalances on the chart up toward the $140 region, and historically, markets tend to revisit and fill those zones. But before that, there’s a potential extension down toward $47.9 that could act as support.
The monthly timeframe adds even more caution. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Solana’s monthly SuperTrend indicator has flipped to a sell signal. The last time that happened was in 2022. What followed back then was brutal, a roughly 95% decline.
History doesn’t always repeat perfectly. But it does rhyme, sometimes loudly.
Accumulation Slows as Conviction Fades
On-chain metrics show some accumulation, though it’s losing steam. Glassnode data reveals that the HODLer net position change turned positive in January, meaning long-term holders were adding to their positions. That’s usually a constructive signal.
However, over the past three weeks, that accumulation has slowed. The timing aligns with SOL’s drop below $100, which may have dented confidence. Long-term holders aren’t aggressively dumping, but they’re not stepping in with the same conviction either.
Another concerning metric is the percentage of addresses in profit. That figure has slipped to levels not seen since November 2023, hovering around 20%. During the last bear cycle, it bottomed out near 1.37% in December 2022. We’re not there yet. But the direction isn’t encouraging.
Strong Fundamentals, Weak Price
There’s a disconnect forming. On one hand, Solana’s real-world asset growth, rising dApp revenue, and institutional engagement paint a fundamentally strong picture. On the other, the chart remains technically bearish, and broader market sentiment still leans risk-averse.
Long-term investors might view this as a slow accumulation phase. Or they might decide to wait a few more months for clearer confirmation. For now, calling a definitive bottom feels premature. The ecosystem is expanding. The price, however, is still searching for solid ground.
