• JPMorgan predicts that the newly approved spot Ethereum ETFs will likely begin trading before the November 2024 US presidential elections
• The SEC approved eight spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23, including offerings from VanEck, BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity
• JPMorgan cites crypto’s increasing political significance, recent regulatory developments, and the upcoming elections as factors influencing the ETF trading timeline
JPMorgan, a major investment bank, predicts that spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely begin trading before the November 2024 US presidential elections. This outlook follows the SEC‘s unexpected approval of eight spot Ethereum ETFs on May 23, marking a shift in the agency’s stance toward these financial products.
ETF Approvals Signal Regulatory Shift
The SEC approved the 19b-4 forms for the Ethereum ETFs from firms like VanEck, BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity. However, these products still require activating their S-1 registration statements before trading starts. JPMorgan noted the issuers’ statements remain under SEC review without an anticipated trading date.
Political Factors Influencing Timeline
While some analysts predict trading could start as early as July or August, JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance. They believe political dynamics around ETF approval and crypto regulation may impact the timeline. JPMorgan highlighted cryptos growing political significance ahead of the 2024 election.
Recent Political Developments
This perspective aligns with major recent political and regulatory crypto developments:
- The House passed FIT21, legislation clarifying the SEC’s crypto oversight role.
- President Biden expressed willingness to work with Congress on a crypto regulatory framework.
- Former President Trump said he would accept crypto campaign donations.
- Congress voted to overturn an SEC crypto rule despite Biden’s veto threat.
These signal growing mainstream acceptance of crypto as a financial asset. The Ethereum ETF approvals against this backdrop suggest political momentum toward balanced crypto regulation.
Conclusion
While the SEC has approved Ethereum ETFs, JPMorgan believes political factors may influence when trading actually starts. With crypto becoming increasingly politicized ahead of the 2024 election, JPMorgan predicts the new products will likely launch before November. The recent ETF approvals and political developments highlight crypto’s ongoing integration into the mainstream financial system.
