- Betting markets favor former President Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election, with sites like Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers giving him higher odds than his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris.
- The betting markets’ aggregated odds for a Trump victory stand at around 57%, contrasting with poll-based prediction models that suggest a near tie between Trump and Harris.
- Election betting sites allow users to purchase contracts tied to the real-time market-implied odds of a candidate winning, with payouts of $1 for correct predictions and $0 for incorrect ones.
The election between President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be an extremely close race, with most polls showing the candidates neck and neck. However, betting markets are telling a different story, with traders firmly believing Trump will secure a second term.
Betting Sites Show Strong Trump Lean
Several major prediction markets and sportsbooks clearly favor Trump over Harris on the eve of the election:
- Polymarket gives Trump a 60% chance of winning compared to just 40% for Harris.
- Kalshi leans toward Trump by a 56% to 44% margin, a significant shift from Saturday when Harris briefly led.
- Though closer than other sites, PredictIt still favors Trump, pricing his odds at 51% to Harris’ 49%.
- New entrant Robinhood pegs Trump’s win probability at 59% versus 43% for Harris.
- Interactive Brokers’ election betting arm ForecastEx also favors Trump, assigning him 58% odds compared to Harris’ 43%.
- Non-US sites Betfair and Smarkets echo these odds, with Trump maintaining leads between 58% and 60%.
Polls Show an Extremely Tight Race
Despite the strong Trump lean from betting markets, most statistical election forecast models show the race is still a pure toss up.
- FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Harris a slight 50% to 49% edge.
- The Silver Bulletin run by analyst Nate Silver has Harris up by the smallest of margins, 50.02% to 49.99%.
- These poll-based models stand in stark contrast to betting markets. The disagreement has sparked debate over which better predicts the outcome.
How Election Betting Works
Betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi offer users contracts tied to candidates’ real-time odds. Each contract pays out $1 if that candidate wins.
- Currently a Trump contract would cost around $0.57, while a Harris contract would be $0.44.
- These sites have limits – Robinhood caps users at 5,000 contracts per election; PredictIt allows 850 contracts.
- By betting actual money on contracts, users have a financial incentive to wager on whoever they think will win.
With such conflicting predictions, it remains to be seen whether bettors or pollsters will prove right in forecasting the tight Trump-Harris election as Americans head to the polls.
