- HBAR is pressing against $0.098 wedge resistance after a strong weekly rally.
- RSI divergence and rising open interest suggest leverage risk is increasing near resistance.
- A breakout above $0.098 could target $0.107 and $0.145, while a drop below $0.090 may trigger liquidations toward $0.076.
Hedera’s HBAR has quietly stepped ahead of the broader crypto pack. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up roughly 2% over the past day, HBAR has climbed close to 10% over the past week and around 8% in just 24 hours, trading near $0.096 at press time. On the surface, that looks strong. Almost like the early stages of a breakout.
But when you dig into the structure, the picture gets a little more complicated. Momentum is improving, yes, but participation and conviction aren’t rising at the same pace. And that imbalance tends to matter.
Falling Wedge Breakout Hopes Are Growing
HBAR has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern since late 2025. That kind of structure often carries bullish implications, especially when price compresses toward the apex and starts pushing against resistance.
Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from near the lower boundary of the wedge and climbed toward the upper trendline around $0.098. That level has capped price multiple times, which makes it the obvious breakout trigger. If HBAR breaks and holds above $0.098, the measured move from the wedge projects upside of more than 50% from current levels. That’s not small.
However, momentum is starting to flash subtle warning signs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks buying and selling strength, has been climbing. But between February 6 and February 12, price struggled to decisively clear $0.098 and began forming what looks like a potential lower high. Meanwhile, RSI kept printing higher highs.
That setup creates what traders call a hidden bearish divergence. It happens when improving momentum fails to translate into stronger price structure. It doesn’t mean the trend is about to collapse, but it does suggest buyers are getting stretched near resistance.
The divergence risk disappears if HBAR cleanly tags and closes above $0.098, invalidating the lower-high formation. Until then, upside efficiency looks slightly weaker than it did a few days ago.
Money Flow Is Improving, But Not Convincing
Another layer of caution comes from capital flow indicators. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tracks whether significant money is entering or leaving an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF stays above zero, it typically signals strong institutional participation. Below zero, large inflows are missing.
From late December through mid-February, HBAR’s CMF trended higher even as price drifted lower. That divergence supported the recent bounce. CMF even broke above its descending trendline, which is constructive.
But here’s the catch: CMF remains below the zero line.
That means selling pressure has eased, but strong accumulation hasn’t returned yet. The rally appears to be driven more by short-term traders than deep-pocketed wallets stepping in aggressively. It’s a relief move, not necessarily a conviction move.
Derivatives Data Adds Another Layer of Risk
The derivatives side is where risk starts rising faster than confidence.
Open interest, which measures the total value of active futures contracts, jumped from roughly $26.96 million to about $29.38 million in a single day, a 9% increase. That happened as price approached the $0.098 resistance zone. In other words, leverage is increasing right where the chart gets fragile.
At the same time, funding rates flipped sharply positive, shifting from around -0.018 to near +0.05 within 24 hours. That indicates traders are aggressively building long positions.
There’s also a structural divergence between price and leverage. HBAR formed a local peak on February 8 and another on February 12, but the second peak was lower. Meanwhile, open interest made a higher high. More leverage is entering even though price momentum is softening.
That combination often precedes pullbacks. When leverage stacks up near resistance and momentum starts fading, it doesn’t take much selling pressure to trigger liquidations.
Put simply, risk-taking is increasing, but conviction hasn’t fully caught up.
Key Levels Now Decide the Next Move
With optimism clashing against thin participation, price levels become everything.
The primary upside trigger remains $0.098. That level aligns with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and sustained hold above it would invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce immediate liquidation risk. If that happens, HBAR could target $0.107 first, followed by the $0.145 region, which aligns with the broader wedge projection.
That would signal real demand returning to the structure.
Until then, the rally remains vulnerable.
On the downside, $0.090 is the first key support. That zone has held multiple times during recent consolidation. A breakdown below $0.090 would likely trigger long liquidations, especially given how quickly leverage has built up.
Below that, the next major support sits near $0.076. A move toward that level would represent roughly a 20% drop from current prices and signal that the breakout attempt failed.
Right now, HBAR sits at a crossroads. The structure hints at potential expansion. The derivatives market hints at rising fragility. Which one wins will depend on how price reacts at $0.098. And in markets like this, that reaction tends to be swift.
