- Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a new national poll, overtaking her by a 7-point margin
- This is the first time Trump has led a national poll since September 22, when a survey put him 1 point ahead of Harris
- While Trump is leading the national popular vote, the election will ultimately depend on the swing states, where the race remains highly competitive with narrow margins
Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the polls, marking a dramatic reversal in the 2024 presidential race.
Trump Takes the Lead
According to a new national poll conducted by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8, Trump now holds a 12 point lead over Harris. The poll gives Trump 50.6% of the vote compared to Harris’ 46.4%.
This is a significant swing from just a few weeks prior. In a poll conducted in mid-September, Harris led Trump by 5.4 points. Trump has seen his support jump by 6.6 points over the past three weeks.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of ± 3.1 percentage points.
Harris’ Campaign Still Gaining Traction
While Trump has taken the lead nationally, polls suggest Harris’ campaign continues to gain momentum as election day nears.
A poll by Cygnal between October 2-3 showed Harris leading Trump by 3.3 points, up from less than 1 point in August. Another poll by Morning Consult in early October had Harris 6 points ahead after previous polls showed a tighter 2-5 point lead.
According to FiveThirtyEight‘s poll tracker, Harris holds a 2.6 point national lead over Trump. Their battleground state polling averages show Harris leading by 1-2 points in key swing states.
The Path to 270
The election will come down to a handful of battleground states that hold the keys to an electoral college victory.
Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes is crucial. FiveThirtyEight forecasts a Harris win there, which combined with projected wins in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin would put her over the 270 vote threshold needed to win.
However, with such narrow leads, the race remains highly competitive. These key swing states could deliver the closest presidential contest in over a century.
