- Donald Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris in the latest betting odds from Polymarket, leading in every major swing state with less than three weeks until election day
- A mysterious Polymarket user, “Fredi9999,” has bet over $14 million on Trump winning, including a hefty investment in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania
- While betting odds can indicate trends, political experts warn they are not a guaranteed predictor of election outcomes and may fluctuate due to seemingly insignificant events
Donald Trump has surged ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential race in almost all of the key battleground states, according to the latest betting odds from Polymarket. With less than three weeks remaining until election day, Trump is now favored to win in every major swing state, marking a significant shift in momentum.
Trump’s Strong Odds in Battleground States
In the seven battleground states, Trump’s odds are striking. As of Thursday, he holds a 68 percent chance of winning Arizona, 63 percent in North Carolina, and 65 percent in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, a pivotal state, Trump has a 59 percent chance of victory, while Harris lags at 41 percent. Michigan and Wisconsin show Trump leading by 12 percentage points in both, with odds of 56 percent to 44 percent in his favor. Nevada is the only state where the odds remain split evenly.
Mysterious Big Bettor Boosting Trump Odds
This dramatic shift in the odds has coincided with a high stakes move by a mysterious Polymarket user, “Fredi9999,” who has bet millions on Trump’s victory. The trader has purchased over $14 million worth of shares betting on a Trump win, including in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania. Fredi9999 has been actively increasing their position, with bets placed as recently as this week, sparking speculation.
Expert Warnings on Limitations of Betting Odds
Political experts are warning that while betting odds can indicate trends, they are far from guaranteed predictors of election outcomes. Thomas Gift cautioned that “betting markets are far from foolproof.” He noted that odds often fluctuate due to small events that may not reflect broader electorate trends.
Divergence From Traditional Polling
The Polymarket odds have diverged from traditional polling, which paints a much closer race in many battleground states. Polling shows Harris leading Trump by a few points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. However, Trump leads slightly in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Influence on Public Perception
Nevertheless, betting odds influence the public perception of the race. Large bets like those by “Fredi9999” may artificially inflate Trump’s odds by creating a “floor” in the market, boosting his image as the frontrunner.
Conclusion
The dramatic shift towards Trump in betting odds marks a new phase in the 2024 election race. But experts urge caution in relying too heavily on betting markets to predict the outcome. This unorthodox indicator will continue to evolve in the final weeks of this hard-fought presidential contest.
