Concerns Rise Over Potential Manipulation in Polymarket Trump Betting

• Major bettor “Fredi9999” has placed over $20 million on pro-Trump bets on Polymarket.
• Analysts question whether Trump’s rising odds reflect reality or potential manipulation by large accounts.
• Trump’s odds across other platforms remain high but lower than Polymarket’s 60.7%.

The behavior of high-stakes bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, is sparking concerns about potential manipulation ahead of the 2024 US presidential election. Reports suggest that one major user, “Fredi9999,” has wagered over $20 million on bets favoring former President Donald Trump, significantly driving up his odds on the platform.

These concerns arise as Trump’s odds on Polymarket reached a record high of 60.2% on October 16, a notable jump that some say isn’t aligned with real-world political developments. Alex Momot, CEO of Peanut Trade, emphasized the unusual nature of this trend, suggesting that the platform’s odds are starting to influence public opinion.

Impact of Large Bets on Market Perception

Observers like pseudonymous bettor Domer have pointed out that “Fredi9999” has been central to the sharp rise in Trump’s odds. Domer noted that Fredi appears to control several top accounts, which receive large deposits before making significant bets on Trump, further boosting his position in the prediction market.

These betting patterns have led to speculation that one individual or group may be manipulating the odds in favor of Trump. Domer suggested that Fredi’s strategy might be driven by a confirmation bias, with each upward move reinforcing their confidence.

Potential Manipulation Raises Questions

As Polymarket gains traction as a source of political predictions, concerns about its reliability are increasing. Momot explained that platforms like Polymarket are vulnerable to financial manipulation, particularly as high-stakes bets become more frequent. He warned that practices like multi-accounting and fake address claims could distort outcomes in the future.

Despite these concerns, betting markets outside of Polymarket have also shown an increase in Trump’s odds, though to a lesser degree. As of October 18, Trump’s chances were pegged at 60.7% on Polymarket, while traditional betting platforms like Betfair and Kalshi listed his odds between 56% and 58.8%.

With the 2024 election approaching, the growing influence of decentralized markets like Polymarket will likely be scrutinized, especially when it comes to their role in shaping public perception.