- Bitcoin could slide back to $50,000 as September has historically been the worst month for the cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin’s sideways trading range between $50,000 and $70,000 is expected to continue until there is more clarity on U.S. interest rate cuts and the presidential election
- A Trump victory in the election is seen as an upside catalyst for Bitcoin, while any downside impact from a Harris win is expected to be minimal
Bitcoin has historically performed poorly in September, and this year may be no different. The leading cryptocurrency is stuck in a range and could slide back towards $50,000 as traders await clarity on key macroeconomic events.
Bitcoin’s Dismal August Performance
Bitcoin fell over 10% in August, its worst month since April. Ether dropped even more, down 23% for its third monthly decline and worst month since June 2022. This divergence shows bitcoin’s isolated success with ETFs in 2024 has not lifted the broader crypto market. Crypto’s outlook is bleak as bitcoin keeps sliding within its range.
Ongoing Bearish Price Action
Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending range after peaking in March. Its trend continues to deteriorate with lower highs and lower lows. A breakout would be bullish, but more downside towards $50,000 looks likely in the coming weeks. This bearish technical setup could persist absent a reversal or breakout.
Historic September Weakness
September is bitcoin’s worst performing month historically, with average losses around 5%. It has closed lower in 8 of the last 11 Septembers. While bitcoin broke a six-year September losing streak last year, more weakness may be ahead.
Rangebound Trading to Continue
Bitcoin could stay rangebound until November as traders await clarity on U.S. elections and interest rates. With no clear frontrunner yet, choppy trading is likely to persist. While rate cuts are priced in, the magnitude and timing remain uncertain. Only a major surprise on policy or elections seems likely to shake bitcoin from its slumber.
Conclusion
Bitcoin faces technical headwinds and historic seasonal weakness heading into September. Prices may slide back towards $50,000 absent a breakout or positive catalyst. Macro uncertainty around elections and rates should keep bitcoin rangebound for now. But eventually a direction will emerge.
